I'll be traveling for about a month, and I don't think I'll miss much. FWIW, a few WAGs.
1. Boring, low vol trading range in summer. Good for trading, bad for Jerry :)
2. One more solid bottom in 2009, probably in the fall (maybe in October, SPX 800-850?). At the bottom, at least some of the indicators, such ROBO P/C, OEX P/C, and COT will signal excessive pessimism, but there will be no panic like in March. Ideally, insiders will start buying again.
3. >30% rally into May 2010. SPX 1100, maybe even higher. "Green trees, revival, recession is over".
I'll concentrate on catching the bottom, the rest is not that important. Will try to buy FSNGX below 20, GDX below 30, miners, Russia and Asia. I think gold and TBT will do well.
What do you think?
