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Saturday, 07/11/2009 12:32:22 PM

Saturday, July 11, 2009 12:32:22 PM

Post# of 86719
With respect to the comments made in the article, first, it is very easy to misquote someone who says I am already selling the beer(talking it up, creating interest, anticipation) so that an order can be made and brought in versus "I already have Kid's Beer at my place and it is selling, or sells well, or will do well." There is also the forward looking statement of, "I already know Kid. I know come time to invite him for a concert, I will be selling the heck out of his beer, so it will be an easy sell for him to come where he is recognized and where they love his beer." So, just because YOUR perception of the way something is read happens, it does not make someone a liar.

Next, whatever the venue, if it is ANY kind of event and it has a name, and the name will get paid, then it will draw the people. It doesn't matter if it is a farm field, a barn, or a hole in the wall. MI is in the worst throws it has been in for decades. Yet, Kid Rock sells out his concert in 22 minutes...the very concert he will offer a "soft launch" debut of his beer. There are TWO enormous (50000+ fans each) block parties scheduled for that same event..one on Fri and one on Sat. The beer will be served there as part of "the soft launch."

Next is the beer proper. It was put in the kegs on July 4 as expected. It is already out the door. Production is running full tilt with more to come as additional equipment is put online. If there was beer made on July 4, and kegged on July 4, then there is every reason to suggest that any number of people tasted the beer that day, or had some shipped to them for whatever reason from those first batches with the "Born On The Fourth Of July" special labeling. What if we did taste it? We would say it was awesome, or we would say it was OK, or we could say nothing. For this forum, it means absolutely nothing what we tasted or what the result was. Everyone will judge for themselves when they taste it, and of course, when they reorder over and over again.

What most don't know is that a good amount was earmarked to be auctioned for charity by Kid(troops, veterans) that were specially stamped "B.O.T.F.O.J" as collector's items off that very special brew date for Kid. MORE was shipped with those cases so some select individuals could have it on hand for specific reasons and events outside the official launch.

Now it's time to fully understand the different umbrella this company is operating under. In the past, Willie was a brand Drinks took a stake in with the distiller and Willie. Drinks made the Trump, and royalties go to Donald. Drinks bought the license to Leyrat. They had the Sparkling Vodka made. That is theirs. But, now you have to understand. The beer is a perpetual licensing agreement and an exclusive distribution agreement. It is Kid's AND MBC's baby. Joint owners. Drinks only owns the back end. So, they are only responsible for buying it to fill orders, sales costs(personnel), and shipping. That is it. No massive inventories to stock. This is a completely different animal. But, now Drinks in and of itself becomes a true distributor. Any orders that come into MBC in any way, have to be run through Drinks. The kegs could be sitting in the plant. Fabiano or Kent or Imperial calls MBC and needs 20 of them picked up today for a big customer. It is Drinks' sale. Just that easy.

With this also comes a whole different class of news and information. Kid and MBC control the news. If PK wants to say something, then PK gets it approved from them. If they want to say something, they just put it out. If they want to wait until Kid can focus on promoting the brand more fully at Labor Day, then that is a logistical choice so the #1 spokesman can be involved 100%. IT IS NOT BECAUSE PK IS DRAGGING HIS FEET AND CANNOT GET THE PRODUCT OUT OR DONE. Everything that is happening now is because Kid is calling all the shots with 150 years of beverage experience guiding him, and over 75 years of beer biz showing him this will be a very successful brand.

Also to note is an entire different way of doing business. Where a Drinks' distributor might carry 3-5 states for the alcoholic brands we currently have, or one distributor for an entire coutnry, Kid's beer will have 15 distributors just in one state....up to 2500 distributors nationwide. Where we have 33,000 liquor stores in the US available to sell our products, we have even more places that sell beer...530,000.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-beer-sales-rank-1-on-4th-of-july

Now is Kid Rock Beer going to be sold in 533,000 locations? Of course not. Will it be sold in 10% of those? Absolutely, and probably more. 10% of those is roughly 53000 locations. For the sake of argument, we'll round that to 50000 locations. In one state alone, MI, where we have 15 distributors already locked in to selling the beer, those 15 distributors service and provide beer to over 23000 accounts. MI is Kid's home state, so an official launch there makes perfect sense. A measured release makes perfect sense to not only the market penetration for the product and to guage the overall acceptance/reorder numbers but also from a company stock perspective as it locks in a sizable growth curve going out three years.

So, we have 23000 available accounts in MI. Kid will be sold in at least half of those...one state. The Top 4 alcohol consumption states are:

California, Texas, Florida, and New York.

These four, with MI, will carry us to well over 30000 retail locations. The balance of the country will fill in to give us a minimum of 50000 retail locations. Now, how do we get to all these locations? Simple!

There are 2500 beer distributors in this country. We already have 15 of them in MI. Suffice it to say if we have 10% of the overall retail penetration, then we will have 10% of the overall distributor base. Therefore, Drinks will have 250 Kid Rock Beer distributors nationwide. So, we only have to deal with 250 customers, of which we already have a National Sales Team in place, plus the folks at MBC who are working with their distribution base.

Now it comes down to consumption. The other day I noted that we could do 3 million cases if folks just drank 4 cases per year. Then I said it should be more like 10-15. Well, the average American last year, over 21, consumed 31 gallons, TWO entire kegs of beer in total for a 12 month period. That is essentially 13 cases. It's been around this number for many years.

http://www.beerinstitute.org/BeerInstitute/files/ccLibraryFiles/Filename/000000000904/State%20data%20per%20capita%20consumption%202008.pdf

Yes, a whole different class of distributors has opened up. Those with exclusive beer ties. Those that argue Drinks is being blackballed in the distribution biz can just move along quietly. All that changes now. The beer biz is watched closely for its mafia mentality of controlling this $190 billion a year sector in the US much like big tobacco was.

Now with 250 distributors servicing 50000 accounts, that is 200 accounts per distributor, and an industry standard. Growth in numbers. Penetration in numbers. 50000 retail accounts have to simply sell 60 cases per year of BadAss to hit 3 million cases. That is 5 cases a month. Some will immediately argue there is no way you can get ALL 50000 retail accounts to sell the beer. And you know what? They are right. But what they don't realize is, they do not have to. As is clearly posted by The Beer Institute, the average per capita(per person) consumption of beer in the US is 2 kegs per year. That is round about 13 cases per person. That means FIVE, just five, a mere FIVE people have to buy the beer from any retail location on a regular basis to achieve 3,000,000 cases per year. Five people at 50000 locations is a quarter of a million...250,000... loyal Kid Rock Beer drinkers. His fans number in the millions. His loyal beer drinking followers when you include the Harley guys, and factory workers, and the average beer drinker looking for a solid new beer they can drink after work will number up to or even more than 750,000. There will be a quarter million in Michigan alone. One hundred thousand of those will make their presence known this coming Friday.

So, it is simple. 250,000 loyal fans drinking the beer, and from that Drinks does $30 million a year in BadAss Beer sales. Triple that to a more REAL number of fans drinking the beer regularly, and it now becomes $90 million a year in sales. That becomes 9 million cases. Many will argue there is no way Drinks can push that much product. And you know what? They are wrong and will always be wrong. Drinks has the capacity, the oursourcing is in place, it will done with ease. All this banter back and forth about a hole in the wall place that may or may not have the beer at a precise time, or when an article was written, or to the extent of calling a respected businessman all throughout Long Island a liar, is fodder at best, and actually truly indicates the limited and miniscule capacity of some individuals.

So, while you take some time to truly grasp what is happening here, and at the same time maintain this unending passion for convincing the world something completely the opposite is happening, also bear in mind one other thing.

This is one beer....one brand. This is American BadAss Beer Company. That company encompasses many beer products and entries. We are seeing Redneck Lager right now...the main staple offering. Blue Collar Lager is right behind it as the "Light" offering and all ready to go. The "white" offering will be right behind that. Then, we will have our Red, White, and Blue beers in the market. Sure, we'll have some fans switch from one to the other. But we will also have triple the advertising threat and presence. That means sales will rise that much higher.

So, we have some that maintain we will never sell a drop. That has already happened. We have a stock that says Kid was never born. That has already happened. We have a stock that has no clue this is a $100 million+ a year Beer Company. And we have more than our share of people that simply have nothing else to offer us other than calling people liars, drawing back to a year ago where a prediction didn't come true, and whether or not some idiot will win a ridiculous and monotonous contest of picking prices. It all really has become a lesson in futility with feeble minds and even more feeble arguments.

Oh, and by the way, while I was typing this. Some more of our business just got evem more huge press.

http://www.pollstar.com/blogs/news/archive/2009/07/10/678249.aspx