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Re: haysaw post# 27258

Tuesday, 07/07/2009 10:58:58 AM

Tuesday, July 07, 2009 10:58:58 AM

Post# of 51153
This is the kind of broad statement that just begs for some data. So I took a look at a database of 131 neuro-oriented companies:

64 of them were not actively pursuing partnerships or M&A. Due to partnerships already in place, or VC money allowing them to proceed without deals at this time.

Since nuclear winter for deals began in September 2008, 67 companies have been actively looking for partners/M&A. Of this group, 10 (15%) have been able to complete either a partnership or M&A. 8 of those deals have been completed in the past three months, which I believe supports the idea that for a long time, nothing was getting done during 'nuclear winter', but there has been some 'thawing.'

Of the 8 deals done in the past three months, 5 were for programs that were in Phase IIb (1), PhIII (1), or had their NDA filed or in prep (3). Thus the logjam was breaking almost exclusively for more clinically advanced programs. To put it another way, of the 64 deal-seekers who were not in either PhIII or NDA stage, only three have been able to get deals done (1.6%).

1.6% of the earlier stage companies have been able to complete deals. If you want to restrict it to companies with some degree of clinical POC (21), the percentage is 14%.

So--do the data support the oft-disseminated canard that this is a failure of the messenger, rather than a function of the partnering/economic macro-environment?

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