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Re: gfp927z post# 27200

Friday, 07/03/2009 3:07:47 PM

Friday, July 03, 2009 3:07:47 PM

Post# of 51153
I've come to the conclusion that I haven't the faintest idea.
Enemem's suggestion of a broad low-impact partnership is possible; a SA/RD partnership is possible; even a high-impact discovery stage partnership (like recent deals signed by Lilly and Boehringer Ingelheim) is possible. If I had to guess, I still think an ADHD partnership is the scenario with the largest plurality of likelihood, mainly because the universe of interested parties is so clearcut. But I do not know which one, a M&A or partnership, is more likely.

Note the merger between Neuromed and CombinatoRx a few days ago. The interesting aspect, or one of them, of that deal are the variable terms contingent upon Neuromed's NDA outcome for Exalgo. If Exalgo is approved when expected, late this year, Neuromed shareholders end up with 70% of the combined company. The proportion of Neuromed ownership decreases the longer Exalgo takes to be approved, and if approval does not come, Neuromed shareholders end up with just 30%.

It made me wonder whether some type of similar contingency around SA could be built into a Cortex M&A. It probably would not be necessary, because, while the FDA cannot be hurried, a possible acquisition would probably involve Cortex opening up whatever data they have from whatever number of patients have completed the three SA sleep sessions. But if an acquirer wanted the maximum data before making a commitment whose pricing involves SA to some degree, it could be possible to build in something like what Neuromed did. Unlikely, but possible.

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