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Re: TheBocx post# 20562

Thursday, 07/02/2009 9:40:10 AM

Thursday, July 02, 2009 9:40:10 AM

Post# of 30387
The Bocx, One last time, You are wrong and you obviously do not understand why.

Do you understand ODDS?

When you flip a coin, the odds of heads or tails coming up is 50%. If the toss came up tails, then what are now the odds of tails coming up again? Well, according to the argument you are making with the positive mamogram, you would have said the odds of getting tails on the second toss would be 25%. That is absolutely wrong. The odds on the flip of a coin are 50% each and every time.

When Jane doe has a mamogram, her odds of an actual cancer do not decrease because another patient had a positive mamogram that was cancerous last week.

So once again, look at Jane doe's mamogram and lets say that for that particular roll of the dice, the lesion is positive. Now, you give Jane a RECAF test. OOPS, RECAF has a 15% odds of missing that positive test and absolutely NOT the small percentage you quoted. Now, do you finally understand?

GoldSeeker™

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