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Re: gfp927z post# 27090

Saturday, 06/27/2009 8:06:43 PM

Saturday, June 27, 2009 8:06:43 PM

Post# of 51848
Gfp: As much as I would enjoy tossing some possible numbers out there so that those so inclined could take target practice, I think I will simply note a couple of recent deals which--as I have done before--might be considered 'comps':

<<1) RD partnership - including IV CX-717, and the IV prodrug CX-1942 (note - the non-prodrug version of CX-1942 could also be used by the partner in its oral form). CX-1739 is excluded from this deal.>>

For the reasons I suggested a week or so ago, I don't think this is going to happen sans SA.

<<2) ADHD related partnership - including CX-1739, plus a backup, or alternately, include 2 preclinical low impacts but not CX-1739. Partnership could be for ex-US rights, or alternately, for all global rights.>>

Biovail paid Acadia Pharma $30 million upfront for ACP-103, which on the one hand is in PhIIb, but that is in a relatively small indication. It has the possibility of expanding into larger areas later. CX1739--which would be included, has only indirect POC, but also may be applicable to another large indication. But because companies who care about ADHD may not care about RD/SA---actually I refer to Shire,since JNJ could care about both--this is probably on the high side.

<<3) High impacts related partnership - includes the lead compound CX-1846, plus a backup, or alternately, a deal for the whole high impact platform.>>

Lilly bought $17 million of NeuroSearch stock as the upfront payment on an ion channel discovery program. The Cortex high impact program may be more advanced, but is probably seen as higher risk.

<<4) RD as in #1 above, but also including SA rights (without full SA trial data).>>

See #2.

<<5) A licensing deal with Schering/Merck for several of Cortex's new generation preclinical low impacts.>>

See #3.

<<6) Monetize the future milestone/royalty stream from Schering's Schizo/Depression properties.>>

Since I don't know how those trials turned out, it's impossible to guesstimate.


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