finally, i am beginning to see a
by: posyche
Long-Term Sentiment: Buy 08/25/04 01:04 pm
Msg: 84784 of 84808
much clearer picture here.
all of the pieces are not in place, to match the rhetoric.
randy, as usual, has presented this company in a fairly objective light.
the debate between the two of us, is an unanswered question,
and the belief that we will somehow garner the revs necessary to support a stock price we are all looking for, is highly unlikely in my view.
i suspect that macromedia is indeed looking at us for some type of business offering, perhaps cold fusion, in connection with conferencing, or somehing of that ilk...and not flash.
if it is their development tools, then it is possible that we will not be developing anything for anyone in the backend. they'll be doing it themselves, for the price of mx suite.
electronic arts seems to have panned out per yesterdays discovery to the likes of a kit to build your own sims movies, and thus compress with vp6 to fit them into the game.
the revs from that cannot be that great in terms of recurring revenue, and the price up front as well, somewhat prohibitive due to its use i would presume.
the other deals, we have heard nothing about as yet, and as well, macromedia despite my views still remains a big questionmark.
there to date has been no update of revenue guidance for the quarter.
it is almost as if we should be buying back shares to make the cap and float smaller at this point.
the majority of fees thus far has been for liscencing without use, and i think perhaps, engineering.
most of the deals signed seem to be a hedge for including on2 in their products for wider compatibility, should on2 score a major vod deal, or conferencing deal, and to dam's credit, they must be doing a very good job of convincing clients of its future viability.
and that use will not be driven until content is either delivered, or converted in realtime to vp6. i think at the moment, a realtime conversion mechanism would help drive the end user, and put it onto more machines/devices, while trying to develop a feasable mechanism for encoding at the back-end without the necessity to use the mpegs, at the added cost.
the mpegs are of choice simply because everyone can view them, thus they are totally necessary, and on2 royalties turn out to be additional, as opposed to savings.
a plugin for quicktime is totally necessary, and realplayer would be nice as well.
they would solve the back end content problem, i believe, and drive major acceptance.
wmv can compete as it will, and always has, but will always be hated for it's dominance, and strict proprietary adherence.
outside of that, it is advertising through java, and strictly closed loop.
even in videoconferencing, and instant messaging, a closed loop ultimately will not suffice. the need for a broader compatibility will crop up over and over again.
so the share will be there, but i am growing doubtful that in the short term that it will be there to support capitalization to any viable degree.
that said, i feel the stock price currently reflects the lower end of all these factors, with no optimism or speculation whatever.
with that i now officially move ....nah...
i'll stay at a buy...
pos
