Short Term Trading Member Forum

[techcharter]

PEGwatcher

Eventually US debt AND currency will become unattractive to foreign investors. Foreign investors and the US are in a dysfunctional relatinoship. Foreign investors have indicated there is a problem. The European Central Bank issued "SELL" recommendations for US mortgage backed securitites to regional banks in Europe in spring '03. The US is in denial game of having a problem, and the rest of the world is having troubles justifying getting out of the relationship. This is going to be an ugly divorce.

I would be cautious investing in Euros. Over the next year or so things should be profitable. Longer term I expect another rise in nationalism which will undo the politcal unity that give credance to the euro as a currency. Anti semitism is growing quickly as indicated by the burned synagog.

Going to Asian currency is a gamble insofar as getting out of a profitable trade. If the US confiscates foreign currency its citizens hold, then the investment is a loss. If forecign travel restrictions are placed, then converting the foreign currency back to US$ again becomes a problem.