Abet Chichi2

[chichi2]

stkmen, that is several mouths full. can i have some watermelon first?

i expect the following

some disconnected thoughts
1** In options week, there sometimes is a Rebalancing Downer on the Thursday of that week.
2** I expect a pullback after Jun 27th and before July 15, taking us back to 873 or 833.
3** Stk markets, Indices and Stks tend to work their way Upward or Dnward in Sawtoothed fashion.
4** 2 will be the only major pullback we will have before July 16
5** there maybe lesser sawteeth at anytime, and sawcreves at anytime too
6** i can not very well predict Saws teetg abd creves actions on daily basis, except there is usually a lull about 10:30am each day, and there are several tendencys by day, week, month, fed actions and more
7** i believe Oil is in a Range between $85 and $50 over the next 6 months. and Oil seems to be getting more expensive in its present trending

So what Overall have we learned

My best estimate is that we will make it into July without a major correction in the Market. See 2,4

Probably Oil will move Up in Price toward $85, it probably will not get there in the next 3 weeks. It may even Sawtooth back abit or up abit.

now, what did you ask?
(i can see you questions below, i will look)
1)no, not are
2)yes we will but after June is over
3)not in June
4)873 or 833 (but i do not think that is your immediate question)
5)i do not care as much abt Oil as i do about USdollar i would like it to pick a direction and slowly move toward it, preferablely Down. Oil i would prefer to go slowly slowly up.

in (4) i suggest your question assumes i hold longer than i do. in my Trading Accounts: i tend to play the bull side but i may hold for minutes, hours, day, or days, i trade during day and before open and after close. but usually only a few hours a day. i play by feel and by interest. if disinterested, i may close all trades or let them cook.

i sold out all but one Trading account today, so i could control it quickly, i felt like something would happen. Probable abt 1pm. only had one entry. then i saw the beginning of afternoon drop, so i closed out. i did not expect to get back in until next week, seeing that tomorrow is Friday.

But seeing the size of the drop, by after close, i got partway back in.

In my Important Monies Accounts, i am holding Bonds and CDs since Sept 2008. These are all Up nicely considering the moves in Treasuries. Mine are all Long term vehicles. As i have said before, i have never had CDs go up in value before like what is happening. Also included are some stronger stocks like IBM that i consider basic holdings during this period.

I must go now, and spit out the watermelon seeds.
chi2

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YOUR QUESTIONS
Chi chi
1)If we are or 2)if we do get a pullback , 3)would you not expect it to come near or into option expiration next week ?
4)at what level on the s&p would you be hoping to add when we do pullback ? 5)Do you not feel oil has to move up with this rally into the end of June to support your thesis or not ?
Thanks for your comments and some great posts .

Mike