MARKET REVIEW: Dollar retreated on renewed geopolitical risks
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Dollar lost ground broadly on Thursday due to more violence in Iraq, record high oil prices, as well as weaker than expected Philadelphia Fed survey for August and U.S. leading indicator for July. The Philly index fell to 28.5 from previous month's 36.1. The leading indicator fell by 0.3% m/m, worse than the expectation of -0.2%.
The Nymex crude futures rose by 3% to a record high at $48.80 per barrel while the gold also surged to a three-month high at 407.75.
Euro and cable rose to 1.2379 and 1.8346 while the greenback fell to 1.2400 and 109.06 against the Swiss franc and Japanese yen.
Friday will see the release of Japan all industry index, French GDP, as well as E-12 current and trade balance.
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Major Economic Indicators for Today ( )
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Time Country Indicator
0645 France GDP Q2
0800 E-12 Trade balance Jun
0800 E-12 Current account Jun
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TODAY'S FOREX MARKET OUTLOOK
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USD/YEN - 109.32
Update Time : 01:05GMT
As dollar has remained under pressure due to cross buying in yen, suggesting erratic decline from 112.79 to retrace upmove from 107.02 remains in force and although marginal weakness is likely, loss of momentum would keep price well above pivotal sup at 108.10 and yield rebound later, however, res at 110.61 is expected to remain intact...
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Daily Technical Outlook
EUR/USD, USD/CHF, GBP/USD, USD/YEN
USD 80/m, Contact us for further information query@acetrader.com
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DAILY TECHNICAL OUTLOOK ON USD/CHF
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Last Update At : 2004/08/19 23:48
USD/YEN - 109.51..Dlr remained under pressure yesterday in part due to renewed cross buying in yen, dampening our bullish prospect of a rebound n we made a special update at 05:13GMT to exit daily long position at break-even.
Looking at the bigger picture, recent erratic decline fm 112.49 to retrace upmove fm 107.02 remains in force n although further weakness to 108.80/85 is likely, as both 15 min. n hourly oscillators wud display 'prominent' bullish convergences on such move, suggesting steep fall is unlikely to be seen n reckon 108.50 wud hold, yield much needed correction but abv 110.18/22 (prev. res n 38% r of 112.10) is needed to confirm low is made, extend gain twd res at 110.61 res, which is expected to hold on 1st testing.
Today, we are buying dollar on next fall in anticipation of rebound to 109.60 n if dollar recovers to 109.80 (38% r of 111.01 to 109.06) 1st, sell there for resumption of decline to 108.80/90.
Only a firm break below pivotal sup at 108.10 wud signal decline fm 114.90 has resumed n yield eventual re-test of 107.02 low...
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Daily/weekly recommendations, medium term outlook, daily technical outlook, wave analysis
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YESTERDAY'S RECOMMENDED TRADES
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INTRA-DAY USD/YEN OUTLOOK - +109.15+
Update Time : 2004/08/19 17:28GMT
As has remained under pressure, suggesting down side bias remains for nr term decline fm 112.10 to extend marginal weakness to 109.10/15 but reckon 108.80/85 wud hold due to loss of momentum n bring rebound later.
Hold short, stop as indicated, break wud risk stronger recovery but 110.18 shud remain intact...
Rate: +109.15+
Strategy: +Target met+
Position: Short at 109.50
Objective: 109.15
Stop-Loss:
Resistance: 109.63/110.18/110.61
Support: 109.00/108.62/108.10
INTRA-DAY AUD/USD OUTLOOK - +0.7180+
Update Time : 2004/08/19 09:16GMT
As aussie has penetrated 0.7168 res, suggesting consolidation with upside bias is seen for rebound to 0.7180/85, however, price needs to break abv 0.7197 to signal recent upmove fm 0.6932 has resumed for further gain to 0.7215/20.
Hold long, stop as indicated but below 0.7130 is needed to risk stronger retrace. to 0.7105/10.
Rate: +0.7180+
Strategy: +Target met+
Position: Long at 0.7150
Objective: 0.7180 1st
Stop-Loss:
Resistance: 0.7197/0.7226/0.7245
Support: 0.7130/0.7103/0.7058
DAILY AUD/USD OUTLOOK - +0.7215+
Update Time : 2004/08/19 10:21GMT
A$'s rebound after holding abv 0.7130 suggests pullback fm 0.7197 has 'possibly' ended there n upside bias is seen for a resumption of recent upmove fm 0.6932 after minor consolidation n yield gain to 0.7215/20 but reckon 0.7245 wud hold fm here.
Hold long, stop below 0.7130, break risks 0.7095/00 but sup at 0.7058 wud hold n yield rebound...
Rate: +0.7215+
Strategy: +Target met+
Position: Long at 0.7150
Objective: 0.7215
Stop-Loss:
Resistance: 0.7269/0.7320/0.7348
Support: 0.7168/0.7130/0.7096
DAILY NZD/USD OUTLOOK - +0.6700+
Update Time : 2004/08/19 14:31GMT
DAILY NZD/USD OUTLOOK - +0.6700+
As kiwi has risen after early retreat to 0.6626, suggesting recent upmove wud extend gain to 0.6705/10 b4 prospect of retreat due to loss of momentum.
Hold long, stop now at break-even but below 0.6618 is needed to signal temp. top seen, 0.6595...
Rate: +0.6700+
Strategy: +Target met+
Position: Long at 0.6645
Objective: 0.6700
Stop-Loss:
Resistance: 0.6706/0.6760/0.6797
Support: 0.6620/0.6595/0.6562
INTRA-DAY EUR/GBP CROSS OUTLOOK - +0.6750+
Update Time : 2004/08/19 14:14GMT
As euro has retreated fm 0.6783, suggesting consolidation with downside bias is seen for a correction of recent upmove to 0.6742 sup, however, below is needed to abort daily bullishness n risk stronger retrace. to 0.6720/25.
Exit long, n sell on recovery, stop as indicated, break wud extend one more rise to 0.6795/00.
Rate: +0.6750+
Strategy: +Target met+
Position: Short at 0.6770
Objective: 0.6750
Stop-Loss:
Resistance: 0.6797/0.6815/0.6823
Support: 0.6742/0.6710/0.6685
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AceTrader Performance Update
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July 2004 (Pips)
Intraday Daily
USD/YEN +217 -31
EUR/USD +509 +186
USD/CHF +529 +499
GBP/USD +752 +301
YTD 2004 (Pips)
Intraday Daily
USD/YEN +338 -31
EUR/USD +2550 +1130
USD/CHF +2421 +1001
GBP/USD +2941 +548
Alex Tsui
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Trendsetter Financial Markets Limited
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