MARKET REVIEW: Dollar maintains a firm undertone on speculation
of Fed rate hike
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Dollar continued to edged higher against the European currencies but was under pressure versus the Japanese yen on Wednesday. Investors unwound over-extended short yen positions, particularly against euro and cable. Sterling was particularly under pressure due to the minutes from the U.K. MPC meeting earlier this month expressed a dovish stance on the U.K. interest rate direction.
Euro and cable fell to 1.2283 and 1.8206 while dlr/chf rose to 1.2514. However, dlr/yen fell to 109.28 from an intra-day high at 110.18.
Thursday will see the release of German PPI, UK retail sales, as well as the U.S. weekly jobless claims and leading indicators.
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Premier Package
Intraday/daily/weekly recommendations, medium term outlook, daily technical outlook, wave analysis
(Majors) - USD 300/m, (Majors/Minors/Crosses) - USD 360/m
Contact us for further information query@acetrader.com
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Major Economic Indicators for Today (Aug 19, 04)
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Time Country Indicator
0600 Germany PPI M/M Jul
0600 Germany PPI Y/Y Jul
0830 U.K. Public finance (PSNCR) Jul
0830 U.K. PS net borrowing Jul
0830 U.K. Retail sales M/M Jul
0830 U.K. Retail sales Y/Y Jul
1230 U.S. Jobless claims
1400 U.S. Leading indicators Jul
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TODAY'S FOREX MARKET OUTLOOK
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USD/YEN - 109.45
Update Time : 01:30GMT
The greenback continued to decline due to active cross buying in
yen, suggesting a strong retracement of upmove from 107.02 remains in force, however, oversold condition should limit downside to dynamic support at 109.11 and yield rebound later.
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Daily Technical Outlook
EUR/USD, USD/CHF, GBP/USD, USD/YEN
USD 80/m, Contact us for further information query@acetrader.com
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DAILY TECHNICAL OUTLOOK ON USD/YEN
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Last Update At : 2004/08/19 01:12
USD/YEN - 109.51..As the greenback continued to decline after
penetrating 109.82 due to active cross buying in yen y'day (dlr fell to an intra-day low of 109.28 in late U.S. session), dampening our daily bullishness n dynamic sup at 109.11 (61.8% r of the upmove fm 107.02-112.49) needs to hold for prospect of a rebound, a subsequent breach of y'day's high at 110.18 wud confirm erratic fall fm 112.49 has made a temp. low n yield retracement twds 110.61 res, however, reckon 111.01 wud cap upside fm here n bring further choppy broad sideways consolidation this week.
Therefore, we remain as 'cautious' buyer with stop below said dynamic sup, as break wud risk one more fall to 108.70/80, however, hourly oscillators are already displaying low readings, reckon renewed buying wud emerge abv daily chart sup at 108.10 n yield rebound later.
Looking ahead, only a breach of pivotal sup at 108.10 wud signal upmove fm 107.02 has indeed ended at 112.49 earlier n bring resumption of erratic decline fm 114.90 for re-test of 107.02...
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Standard Package
Daily/weekly recommendations, medium term outlook, daily
technical outlook, wave analysis
(Majors) - USD 150/m, (Majors/Minors/Crosses) - USD 240/m
Contact us for further information query@acetrader.com
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YESTERDAY'S RECOMMENDED TRADE
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INTRA-DAY EUR/USD OUTLOOK - +1.2340+
Update Time : 2004/08/18 19:11GMT
Euro's present rebound fm 1.2283 suggests intra-day low has possibly been formed there n consolidation with upside bias twds 1.2366 res is seen, but abv is needed to signal recent upmove has resumed n yield 1.2390 1st.
Trade fm long side with stop as indicated, below wud risk stronger correction to 1.2255/60...
Rate: +1.2340+
Strategy: +Target met+
Position: Long at 1.2305
Objective: 1.2340
Stop-Loss:
Resistance: 1.2366/1.2390/1.2462
Support: 1.2284/1.2263/1.2205
INTRA-DAY USD/YEN OUTLOOK - +109.40+
Update Time : 2004/08/18 17:01GMT
As dlr has eased after holding below indicated res at 109.90/95 holds, mild downside bias remains for marginal weakness to 109.30/35, however, loss downward momentum wud keep price abv 109.10/15 n bring rebound later today.
Hold short for 109.40, then turn long at 109.35 for 109.70. Abv said res signals low seen, 110.18..
Rate: +109.40+
Strategy: +1.Target met+ n 2. buy at 109.35
Position: 1.Short @ 109.70
Objective: 1) 109.40 n 2) 109.70
Stop-Loss: 25 points
Resistance: 110.18/110.61/111.01
Support: 109.27/108.62/108.10
INTRA-DAY USD/YEN OUTLOOK - +109.80+
Update Time : 2004/08/18 06:20GMT
Despite dlr's early recovery fm 109.81, as long as 110.25/30 holds, intra-day downside bias remains for erratic decline fm 112.49 to resume n extend weakness to 109.80 n possibly 109.60 b4 prospect of a strg rebound due to loss of momentum.
Hold short for st trade, stop at 110.35, abv wud signal low is made n yield rebound to 110.61...
Rate: +109.80+
Strategy: +Target met+
Position: Short at 110.10
Objective: 109.80
Stop-Loss:
Resistance: 110.61/111.01/111.25
Support: 109.81/109.27/109.11
EUROPEAN CLOSING USD/CHF OUTLOOK - +1.2460+
Update Time : 2004/08/18 16:29GMT
As dlr has maintained a firm undertone, suggesting caution on our bearishness n 1.2525/30 must hold for prospect of retreat to retrace y'day's upmove fm 1.2377 later today, below 1.2465 wud signal intra-day top is made n yield 1.2440/45.
Hold short with stop as indicated, abv wud risk stronger correction of recent decline to 1.2550/55.
Rate: +1.2460+
Strategy: +Target met+
Position: Short at 1.2500
Objective: 1.2460
Stop-Loss:
Resistance: 1.2514/1.2547/1.2630
Support: 1.2405/1.2377/1.2315
INTRA-DAY EUR/GBP CROSS OUTLOOK - +0.6770+
Update Time : 2004/08/18 19:15GMT
Although euro has continued to trade narrowly below 0.6760 res, as long as 0.6740 holds, recent rise to retrace intermediate decline fm 0.7088 wud resume for further gain to 0.6770/75 but loss of momentum wud cap price below 0.6790/95.
Hold long, stop as indicated, break wud signal temp. top has been formed n risk 0.6720/25...
Rate: +0.6770+
Strategy: +Target met+
Position: Long at 0.6745
Objective: 0.6770
Stop-Loss:
Resistance: 0.6768/0.6797/0.6815
Support: 0.6733/0.6685/0.6652
INTRA-DAY EUR/YEN CROSS OUTLOOK - +135.40+
Update Time : 2004/08/18 07:23GMT
Despite early rebound fm 135.48, as long as indicated res at 136.00 holds, intra-day downside bias remains for nr term decline fm 137.07 to resume n bring one more fall twd 135.30/35 b4 prospect of a rebound later today.
Hold short for st trade, stop abv there, break wud risk 136.20/25 but 136.55 shud hold...
Rate: +135.40+
Strategy: +Target met+
Position: Short at 135.80
Objective: 135.40
Stop-Loss:
Resistance: 136.00/136.66/137.07
Support: 135.48/135.14/135.00
GBP/YEN DAILY CROSS OUTLOOK - +200.20+
Update Time : 2004/08/18 12:57GMT
Although stg's decline fm 204.79 to retrace upmove fm 194.55 remains in progress, loss of momentum wud keep price abv 199.65/70 n yield rebound.
Hold short at 201.20, stop 200.65 for 200.20 n then buy at 200.20 for 201.20, stop 199.55...
Rate: +200.20+
Strategy: +1)Target met+ n 2) Buy at 200.20
Position: +1) Short at 201.20+
Objective: 1) 200.20 n 2) 201.20
Stop-Loss: 65 points
Resistance: 201.83/202.67/203.59
Support: 200.47/199.67/198.46
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AceTrader Performance Update
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July 2004 (Pips)
Intraday Daily
USD/YEN +217 -31
EUR/USD +509 +186
USD/CHF +529 +499
GBP/USD +752 +301
YTD 2004 (Pips)
Intraday Daily
USD/YEN +338 -31
EUR/USD +2550 +1130
USD/CHF +2421 +1001
GBP/USD +2941 +548
Alex Tsui
Sales Manager - Internet Based Business
Trendsetter Financial Markets Limited
Tel: (852) 2865 2059
Fax: (852) 2525 9443
email: alex@acetrader.com
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strategies
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