Route 1 Inc (ROI)

[fanofpennies999]

Keep a close eye on Route 1
Here is something that I read on another messageboard.
Some guy did an analysis of the numbers..etc etc
Latest quarterly statement:
http://www.stockhouse.com/tools/?page=%2FFinancialTools%2Fsn_newsreleases.asp%3Fsymbol%3DV.ROI%26newsid%3D7322717%26apFlag%3D
with projections of increased subscriptions
http://www.stockhouse.com/Bullboards/MessageDetail.aspx?p=0&m=27181160&l=0&r=0&s=ROI&t=list
If the company has a total of 90,000 subscriptions
the recurring revenue brut before any costs is 15 million?

Actual cost of the keys plus shipping to the customer is
27%
copied from the statement
Gross margin increased by $300,280 for the period to $317,982 or 73 percent as a percentage of revenues


27% of 15 million is $4,050,000 million is the cost of the keys+shipping
.73 x $15,000,000= $10,950,000 is the brut profit

If the total administrative costs per quarter
are the same as the last quarter
the last quarterly total adm cost was
>>>copied from the last statement
Operating expenses decreased by 25% or $427,151 for the period to $1,265,276 total adm cost last qtr
Multiply that by 4 you get total adm costs for 1 year if the adm
costs remain the same per quarter
Estimated adm cost for the next 4 quarters= $5,061,104
$5,061,104.00adm costs + $4,050,000keycosts = $9,111,104

Subtract total costs of $9,911,104
from $15,000,000 in recurring revenues from 90,000 keys
$ 5,088,896 would be the profit
which is a net profit margin of 33.925973%of revenue
divide that by the float of 350,390,000 shares
actual projected eps would be .0145235
Actual share price of .055 is trading at 3.78 times forecasted profits for
the next 12 months.
If the share was trading at 15 times forecasted earnings
then it would be trading at a price of $. 21
If the share was trading at 10 times forecast
then it would be at .14

DISCLAIMER #1: This forecast of course was written by a fan_of_beer_and_prosciuto with
neglible knowledge of forensic accounting and I am assuming
that if indeed the company would announce an increase in subscriptions to 90,000
that the subscription income would kick_in very quickly and that the adminstrative costs
would be kept exactly where they are or will come down even lower.

Conclusion: Present price of .055 represents 35.71% of target price of .14
Lack of traction could change if company announces
more prescriptions and offers a guidance/update on adm cost controls.
If market sees costs coming down, subscriptions going up
then the market will pay a bit more for the share .

Volume for the last 100 days has been bullish.
Average daily volume for the last 40 days is bullish.
Price spread on a daily basis has been very tight
suggesting that buyers and sellers are not chasing
or dumping shares.
Recent decision to offer options to insiders to buy shares at .07 suggests that something is about to happen.

What does the mobikey do?
http://www.squidoo.com/themobikey

Video of a product demonstration:

Website of Company
http://www.route1.com/home/index.php

Investor Realtions Link
http://www.route1.com/company/investor_relations.php

What Insiders Have been Doing
http://canadianinsider.com/coReport/allTransactions.php?ticker=roi

Recent PR Involving Homeland Security, QWEST and Roi
http://www.route1.com/news/pr.php?id=2218

Historically important PR GRANTING QWEST Exclusive
reselling rights for Homeland Security
and locking ina minimum order of 30,000
subscriptions worth $5 mill recurring revenue
http://www.route1.com/news/pr.php?id=2215

Route One Sales Channel Partners
http://www.route1.com/partners/partners.php

Route 1 Services
http://www.route1.com/services/MobiVDI.php