MARKET REVIEW: Dollar recovers on stronger than expected asset
flows data
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Dollar recovered on Monday after Treasury's report on flows in U.S. assets showed enough of a rise in foreign investments to offset the current account gap for June. The net inflows totaled $71.8 billion, up from revised net inflows of $65.2 billion in May and higher than the expectation of $60.0 billion. Foreigners also showed good interests in U.S. securities and nearly doubled the inflow to $40.6 billion in June from $21.9 billion in May.
Euro and Cable retreated fm 1.2384 and 1.8468 to 1.2315 and 1.8380 respectively. The greenback also rose slightly to 111.01 and 1.2456 against the Japanese yen and Swiss franc.
Tuesday will see the release of German Zew, E-12 industrial production data, the U.S. CPI, housing starts, industrial production, as well as capacity utilisation.
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Intraday/daily/weekly recommendations, medium term outlook, daily technical outlook, wave analysis
(Majors) - USD 300/m, (Majors/Minors/Crosses) - USD 360/m
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Major Economic Indicators for Today (Aug 17, 04)
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Time Country Indicator
0900 E-12 Industrial Prod'n M/M Jun
0900 E-12 Industrial Prod'n Y/Y Jun
0900 Germany ZEW index Aug
0900 Germany ZEW current conditions Aug
1230 U.S. CPI M/M Jul
1230 U.S. CPI ex. food & energy Jul
1230 U.S. Housing Starts Jul
1230 U.S. Housing Permits Jul
1315 U.S. Industrial Production Jul
1315 U.S. Capacity utilization Jul
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TODAY'S FOREX MARKET OUTLOOK
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USD/YEN - 110.50
Update Time : 01:00GMT
Although 111.01 has capped yesterday's recovery and further choppy trading is envisaged, as the price action from last month's high at 112..49 is developing into a triangle, reckon support at 109.82 would hold and yield rebound to 111.40/50 later but 112.10 would remain intact.
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Daily Technical Outlook
EUR/USD, USD/CHF, GBP/USD, USD/YEN
USD 80/m, Contact us for further information query@acetrader.com
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DAILY TECHNICAL OUTLOOK ON EUR/USD
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Last Update At : 2004/08/16 23:59
EUR/DLR..1.2357..The single currency spent a relatively quiet day yesterday after last Friday's rally n despite euro's retreat fm 1.2384, renewed buying at 1.2315 in U.S. morning has lifted price, suggesting this month's upmove fm 1.1968 has 'possibly' resumed n marginal gain to 1.2400/05 is envisaged, however, as hourly oscillators wud display bearish divergences on such move, strg rise abv there is unlikely to be seen today n reckon daily res at 1.2462 wud remain intact n yield correction.
We are holding our long position entered at 1.2330 with stop now raised to 1.2300, as below wud signal strg retrace. of last Friday's rally fm 1.2175 is under way n risk weakness to 1.2255 (62% r) b4 prospect of another rise later this week.
Looking ahead, a break abv daily 1.2462 res wud signal upmove fm
1.1760 to retrace this year's fall fm 1.2930 has resumed n further gain to 1.2527 (eq. proj. of 1.1968-1.2320 fm 1.2175) wud be seen but 1.2670 (eq. of 1.1760-1.2462 fm 1.1968) wud remain intact...
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Standard Package
Daily/weekly recommendations, medium term outlook, daily
technical outlook, wave analysis
(Majors) - USD 150/m, (Majors/Minors/Crosses) - USD 240/m
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YESTERDAY'S RECOMMENDED TRADES
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EUROPEAN CLOSING EUR/USD OUTLOOK - +1.2325+
Update Time : 2004/08/16 15:30GMT
Euro's present weakness after holding below 1.2384 suggests intra-day top has been formed there n consolidation with downside bias to 1.2320/25 is seen, however, reckon 1.2290/95 shud contain weak-ness n yield resumption of recent upmove tom.
Hold short for st trade with stop as indicated, break wud risk marginal gain to 1.2415 b4 retreat.
Rate: +1.2325+
Strategy: +Target met+
Position: Short at 1.2360
Objective: 1.2325
Stop-Loss:
Resistance: 1.2384/1.2462/1.2500
Support: 1.2320/1.2263/1.2175
GBP/YEN DAILY CROSS OUTLOOK - +203.30+
Update Time : 2004/08/16 15:28GMT
Stg's retreat fm 204.73 suggests a temp. top has been formed n
downside bias is seen for retracement to 203.20/25 b4 prospect of rebound.
Sell recovery, stop abv there, break wud extend one more rise to
205.00.
Rate: +203.30+
Strategy: +Target met+
Position: +Short at 204.30+
Objective: 203.30
Stop-Loss:
Resistance: 204.73/205.29/206.00
Support: 203.23/202.90/202.52
EUROPEAN CLOSING GBP/USD OUTLOOK - +1.8385+
Update Time : 2004/08/16 15:14GMT
As cable has eased after holding below 1.8468, suggesting intra-day top has possibly been formed there n consolidation with downside bias for retrace. of last wk's rally fm 1.8133 to 1.8385 is seen but 1.8340/45 wud hold n bring rebound.
Trade fm short side with stop as indicated, abv wud signal correction has ended, 1.8475...
Rate: +1.8385+
Strategy: +Target met+
Position: Short at 1.8425
Objective: 1.8385
Stop-Loss:
Resistance: 1.8475/1.8511/1.8572
Support: 1.8381/1.8310/1.8247
INTRA-DAY GBP/USD OUTLOOK - +1.8455+
Update Time : 2004/08/16 09:04GMT
Although cable has rebounded after finding sup at +1.8381+, a break abv minor res at 1.8420 is needed to signal recent upmove has resumed, bring re-test of Friday's high at 1.8455 n then twd chart lvl at 1.8475.
Buy again on dips for 1.8415 or on break of 1.8420 for 1.8455 with 30 points stop...
Rate: +1.8455+
Strategy: +Target met+
Position: +Long at 1.8421+
Objective: +1.8455+
Stop-Loss:
Resistance: 1.8475/1.8511/1.8572
Support: 1.8381/1.8310/1.8247
INTRA-DAY EUR/YEN CROSS OUTLOOK - +137.01+
Update Time : 2004/08/16 07:14GMT
Although indicated res at 133.99 has continued to hold n further
consolidation is envisaged, reckon sup at 136.47 wud remain intact n bring resumption of upmove for marginal gain abv said res but 137.20/25 wud hold due to loss of momentum.
Hold long with stop below there, break wud shift risk to downside for test of 136.22 1st...
Rate: +137.01+
Strategy: +Target met+
Position: Long at 136.70
Objective: 137.00
Stop-Loss:
Resistance: 137.20/137.86/138.47
Support: 136.47/136.22/135.63
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AceTrader Performance Update
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July 2004 (Pips)
Intraday Daily
USD/YEN +217 -31
EUR/USD +509 +186
USD/CHF +529 +499
GBP/USD +752 +301
YTD 2004 (Pips)
Intraday Daily
USD/YEN +338 -31
EUR/USD +2550 +1130
USD/CHF +2421 +1001
GBP/USD +2941 +548
Alex Tsui
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Trendsetter Financial Markets Limited
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