Monday, August 16, 2004 8:58:04 PM
XMSR - Long Term Technical Scenarios
One of the most well know quotes from the stock market:
«Don’t fight the trend… the trend is your friend»
And what about XMSR’s trend ?
By the long term chart, we can say that with trends like that, who needs more friends ?
Basically, XMSR is a mover… and also very technically obedient… In early 99 it touched the incredible mark of $50, less then 3 years later it was below $2… 13 months later it was testing the $30’s ….. Was this chaotic moves ? No way… they were very technical and predictable moves !
XMSR Technical Chart for this Analysis:
http://globalspeculators.com/trading_futures/index.php?topic=41.0
This last move is still running, and it’s a major Bull market trend… very strong and with an important support (the long term ascending on the chart).
If we use the major Bear market since 99 to late 2002, we can see that the major reference (descending resistance) was the trigger for the reversal move, so we should take this as a clue for this Bull Trend.
I’m a short term trader, so it’s very difficult to me to point a target for this long term trend… What I can say, is that while XMSR is reacting positively on the ascending support, it will keep swinging up.
If we consider the mid term price range 20.50 / 31.00 , with an amplitude of 11$, and the hypothetical up target of the symmetrical triangle of $31, we can have a test to this values on the next months…
A positive break out of $31$ would target $42.50 (valid for 10 months).
This all crazy scenario would make sense in target, timing and anatomy… but… but… we have to many «if’s» on this scenario…. …. And the break down of the ascending support would project the stock to 20.50, and this values is also a very important reference (K-Reacting point), a break down of it would mean the same «minus» $11 move, so we would be talking of a $9.50 target (of course this would meant a new Bear Market on XMSR)…
This post is going long, and my conclusions are not much because of the «if’s scenarios», but I can leave my personal opinion on the subject:
XMSR would most likely continues it’s up trend then to reverse to Bear… at least for the next 6 months…
Hope that this post was useful in any way… it was also stimulating and «brain storming» to study this time frame.
Best regards,
Jesse Livermore
http://globalspeculators.com
One of the most well know quotes from the stock market:
«Don’t fight the trend… the trend is your friend»
And what about XMSR’s trend ?
By the long term chart, we can say that with trends like that, who needs more friends ?
Basically, XMSR is a mover… and also very technically obedient… In early 99 it touched the incredible mark of $50, less then 3 years later it was below $2… 13 months later it was testing the $30’s ….. Was this chaotic moves ? No way… they were very technical and predictable moves !
XMSR Technical Chart for this Analysis:
http://globalspeculators.com/trading_futures/index.php?topic=41.0
This last move is still running, and it’s a major Bull market trend… very strong and with an important support (the long term ascending on the chart).
If we use the major Bear market since 99 to late 2002, we can see that the major reference (descending resistance) was the trigger for the reversal move, so we should take this as a clue for this Bull Trend.
I’m a short term trader, so it’s very difficult to me to point a target for this long term trend… What I can say, is that while XMSR is reacting positively on the ascending support, it will keep swinging up.
If we consider the mid term price range 20.50 / 31.00 , with an amplitude of 11$, and the hypothetical up target of the symmetrical triangle of $31, we can have a test to this values on the next months…
A positive break out of $31$ would target $42.50 (valid for 10 months).
This all crazy scenario would make sense in target, timing and anatomy… but… but… we have to many «if’s» on this scenario….
…. And the break down of the ascending support would project the stock to 20.50, and this values is also a very important reference (K-Reacting point), a break down of it would mean the same «minus» $11 move, so we would be talking of a $9.50 target (of course this would meant a new Bear Market on XMSR)… This post is going long, and my conclusions are not much because of the «if’s scenarios», but I can leave my personal opinion on the subject:
XMSR would most likely continues it’s up trend then to reverse to Bear… at least for the next 6 months…
Hope that this post was useful in any way… it was also stimulating and «brain storming» to study this time frame.
Best regards,
Jesse Livermore
http://globalspeculators.com
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