MARKET REVIEW: Dollar falls broadly on worse than expected U.S.
economic data
======================================================
Dollar tumbled broadly on Friday due to the much worse than expected U.S. trade deficit for June and University of Michigan consumer sentiment index for August. The U.S. trade deficit widened to a record $55.8 billion in June, defying expectations for a slight widening to $47 billion, as exports dropped and import rose.
The Michigan sentiment index fell to 94.0 in August, from 96.7 in July and was much lower than economists' forecast of 97.5. The U.S. PPI for July rose by 0.1% m/m, also lower than expectations. The poor showing of U.S. economic data casted fresh doubts on the economy's recovery and the ability to draw foreign capital to fund the growing "twin deficit" gap.
The price of crude oil rose to a record high at $46.0 per barrel nad this was also seen as negative for the outlook of the world's largest economy.
Euro and cable rallied to 1.2275 and 1.8455 while the greenback fell to 110.46 and 1.2377 against Japanese yen and Swiss franc
respectively.
Monday will see the release of another batch of U.S. economic figures, including Empire State Index, net capital inflows and foreign treasury buying data. These reports are likely to provide more volatility for the U.S. unit.
======================================================
Premier Package
Intraday/daily/weekly recommendations, medium term outlook, daily technical outlook, wave analysis
(Majors) - USD 300/m, (Majors/Minors/Crosses) - USD 360/m
Contact us for further information query@acetrader.com
======================================================
======================================================
Major Economic Indicators for Today (Aug 16, 04)
======================================================
Time Country Indicator
1230 U.S. NY Fed Manufacturing Aug
1300 U.S. Net Capital inflows Jun
1300 U.S. Foreign Treasury buys Jun
======================================================
TODAY'S FOREX MARKET OUTLOOK
======================================================
USD/YEN - 110.63
Update Time : 01:30GMT
Despite Friday's rise to 112.10, subsequent strong retreat suggests further choppy trading within triangle-like consolidation from 112.49 would continue and as long as 109.82 sup holds, bullishness remains for a strong rebound to take place later today but resistance at 112.10 is expected to remain intact.
======================================================
Daily Technical Outlook
EUR/USD, USD/CHF, GBP/USD, USD/YEN
USD 80/m, Contact us for further information query@acetrader.com
======================================================
======================================================
WEEKLY TECHNICAL OUTLOOK ON USD/YEN
======================================================
USD/YEN - 110.60..Although the greenback rose to 112.10 due to much weaker than expected Japan's GDP data on Friday, sub-sequent strg retreat on a record U.S. trade deficit in June caused price to fall sharply to an intra-day low of 110.46 b4 trading sideways in U.S. session.
Despite Friday's selloff fm 112.10, the price action fm last month's high at 112.49 is 'possibly' developing into a broad triangle with a-leg:112.49-109.82, b-leg:112.10 n c-leg is now under way n as long as 109.82 sup holds, subsequent strg rebound is envisaged, however, a breach of 112.10 res is needed to confirm upside break has occured, yield resumption of recent upmove fm 107.02 for a stronger retrace. of the decline fall fm 114.90 to 113.20 (62% proj. of 107.02-112.49 measured fm 109.82) later this month.
Today, buying dlr on dips in anticipation of a rebound is advised with stop placed below 109.82, as below wud signal downside break has taken place instead n bring strg retrace. of aforesaid upmove fm 107.02 twd 109.11 (62% r) but price is expected to hold well abv chart sup at 108.10...
======================================================
Standard Package
Daily/weekly recommendations, medium term outlook, daily
technical outlook, wave analysis
(Majors) - USD 150/m, (Majors/Minors/Crosses) - USD 240/m
Contact us for further information query@acetrader.com
======================================================
======================================================
YESTERDAY'S RECOMMENDED TRADES
======================================================
INTRA-DAY GBP/USD OUTLOOK - +1.8440+
Update Time : 2004/08/13 16:35GMT
As cable has rebounded again after holding abv 1.8370 (prev. res), suggesting intra-day rally wud extend gain to 1.8440/45, however, as broad outlook remains consolidative, reckon res at 1.8475 wud hold on 1st testing.
Buy again with stop as indicated, below risk retracement to 1.8330/35 b4 up...
Rate: +1.8440+
Strategy: +Target met+
Position: +Long at 1.8400+
Objective: 1.8440
Stop-Loss:
Resistance: 1.84751.8511/1.8572
Support: 1.8370/1.8310/1.8247
INTRA-DAY GBP/USD OUTLOOK - +1.8340+
Update Time : 2004/08/13 12:49GMT
As cable has rebounded strongly after the worse than expected U.S. trade deficit, suggesting temp. low has beemn formed at 1.8134 n consolidation with upside bias for retrace. of nr term fall fm 1.8475 is underway to 1.8340/40 but 1.8370 wud hold.
Buy again with stop as indicated, break wud signal stronger
correction to 1.8245/50 b4 up...
Rate: +1.8340+
Strategy: +Target met+
Position: +Long at 1.8300+
Objective: 1.8340
Stop-Loss:
Resistance: 1.8370/1.8407/1.8475
Support: 1.8247/1.8195/1.8134
INTRA-DAY EUR/USD OUTLOOK - +1.2340+
Update Time : 2004/08/13 13:16GMT
As intra-day upmove has gathered momentum, suggesting last week's rally has resumed n abv 1.2304 res wud confirm this view n bring further gain twds 1.2351, however, o/bot condition is likely to limit upside to 1.2380.
Buy again on dips for 1.2300 or on break of 1.2304 for 1.2340. Below 1.2245/50 risks 1.2220/25...
Rate: +1.2340+
Strategy: +Target met+
Position: +Long at 1.2305+
Objective: +1.2340+
Stop-Loss:
Resistance: 1.2351/1.2393/1.2462
Support: 1.2263/1.2175/1.2144
INTRA-DAY USD/CHF OUTLOOK - +1.2480+
Update Time : 2004/08/13 12:40GMT
As intra-day selloff fm 1.2630 has accelerated, suggesting a test of 1.2508 wud be seen, below wud confirm last week's fall fm 1.2860 has resumed for further weakness to 1.2480, however, o/sold condition is likely to limit downside to 1.2450.
Sell with stop as indicated n take profit on subsequent decline...
Rate: +1.2480+
Strategy: +Target met+
Position: Short at 1.2540
Objective: 1.2480
Stop-Loss:
Resistance: 1.2547/1.2647/1.2686
Support: 1.2485/1.2453/1.2407
INTRA-DAY USD/YEN OUTLOOK - +110.70+
Update Time : 2004/08/13 12:59GMT
Present penetration of 111.25 after the worse than exepcted U.S. trade deficit suggests temp. top is made at 112.10 n consolidation with downside bias for retrace. of nr term rise fm 109.82 to 110.70/75 but 110.42/45 sup wud hold on 1st testing.
Sell again with stop as indicated, abv wud signal stronger correction to 111.65/70 b4 retreat...
Rate: +110.70+
Strategy: +Target met+
Position: Short at 111.10
Objective: 110.70
Stop-Loss:
Resistance: 112.10/112.49/113.00
Support: 111.48/111.25/110.76
INTRA-DAY USD/YEN OUTLOOK - +111.45+
Update Time : 2004/08/13 12:31GMT
Dlr's retreat fm 112.10 suggests a temp. top has been made there n consolidation with mild downside bias is seen for retrace. to 111.50 but sup at 111.25 (prev. res) shud remain intact n yield resumption of recent upmove.
Hold short for st trade n exit on decline, stop 112.00, abv wud risk marginal gain twds 112.49...
Rate: +111.45+
Strategy: +Target met+
Position: Short at 111.80
Objective: 111.50
Stop-Loss:
Resistance: 112.10/112.49/113.00
Support: 111.48/111.25/110.76
INTRA-DAY EUR/YEN CROSS OUTLOOK - +136.60+
Update Time : 2004/08/13 00:04GMT
As euro has risen strongly after the release of weaker than expected GDP, suggesting correction fm 136.58 has indeed ended earlier at 135.14 n further gain twd chart res at 136.70 is envisaged but rec-kon 137.00 wud limit upside due to o/bot condition.
Buy for this move with stop as indicated, below wud defer n risk
pullback twd 135.63 sup...
Rate: +136.60+
Strategy: +Target met+
Position: +Long at 136.28+
Objective: 136.65
Stop-Loss:
Resistance: 136.70/137.02/137.86
Support: 136.12/135.63/135.14
SEP T-BOND FUTURES DAILY OUTLOOK - 111.04
Update Time : 2004/08/13 12:42GMT
T-bond's rebound after holding abv 110.02 indicates a test of 111.04 wud be seen but a firm break is needed to signal correction fm 112.00 has ended.
Trade fm long side with stop as indicated, below said sup wud risk correction to 109.26/28...
Rate: 111.04
Strategy: +Target met+
Position: Long at 110.10
Objective: 111.04
Stop-Loss:
Resistance: 111.04/111.10/112.00
Support: 110.02/109.15/109.08
DAILY USD/ZAR OUTLOOK - +6.5000+
Update Time : 2004/08/13 06:32GMT
Dlr's rally abv 6.3591 res indicates retrace. of intermediate decline fm 7.1602 is under way for further gain to 6.5000 b4 retreat due to o/b condition.
Trade fm long with stop at 6.37, below wud risk pullback twd 6.31/6
.....................................................................................................................................32 b4 rebound...
Rate: +6.5000+
Strategy: +Target met+
Position: Long at 6.4250
Objective: 6.5000
Stop-Loss:
Resistance: 6.5510/6.6425/6.7000
Support: 6.3591/6.2750/6.1650
======================================================
AceTrader Performance Update
======================================================
July 2004 (Pips)
Intraday Daily
USD/YEN +217 -31
EUR/USD +509 +186
USD/CHF +529 +499
GBP/USD +752 +301
YTD 2004 (Pips)
Intraday Daily
USD/YEN +338 -31
EUR/USD +2550 +1130
USD/CHF +2421 +1001
GBP/USD +2941 +548
Alex Tsui
Sales Manager - Internet Based Business
Trendsetter Financial Markets Limited
Tel: (852) 2865 2059
Fax: (852) 2525 9443
email: alex@acetrader.com
URL: www.acetrader.com - 24 hours real-time intra-day forex
strategies
Reuters Index: TREN01 since 1989
======================================================
Disclaimer
======================================================
Trendsetter does not warrant or guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness to its service or information contained therein.
Trendsetter does not give, whatsoever, warranties, expressed or implied, to the results to be obtained by using its services or information it provided. Users are trading on their own risk and Trendsetter shall not be responsible under any circumstances for the consequences of such activities. Trendsetter and its affiliates, in no event, be liable to users or any third parties for any consequential damages, however arising, including but not limited to damages caused by negligence whether such damages were foreseen or unforeseen.
