Zeev's Turnips Patch-No Politics (ZEEV)

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Only a 40% chance of recession in 2005? To read Roach's writings over the last few months, one might have concluded he thinks the chance is much closer to 100%.

BTW, the alarm about China's slowing growth rate is amusing. If they grow 15% three years in a row, which I think they will have done by the end of this year, then "slow" to only 10%, the actual growth in that fourth year would be greater than the growth in the first year.

Besides, 10% is probably a higher rate of growth than can be sustained for long without periodic severe disruptions. The U.S. had a similar growth rate in the 1800's, but we had a bunch of really nasty economic downturns, too.