Friday, August 13, 2004 12:25:45 PM
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/040813/economy_gdp_revisions_1.html
I'm not sure just how much, but 10% to 20% doesn't seem unreasonable. One has to wonder how much longer the Chinese will tie the Yuan to the $. With their increasing oil bills it would make sense for them to up the exchange rate. This, of course, means that the fed will no longer be able to hide the reality of a soaring inflation rate and will be forced to attack inflation more directly. On the other hand the other half of the fed's mandate is to insure full employment, something not consistent with fighting inflation. All in all not a very rosy economic outlook.
The U.S. habit of living off the largess of others is something that will not be corrected overnight. Even if the Asian currencies that are tied to the $ adjust higher there is no guarantee that this will result in more jobs. We're going into what should be a rather tough period as the price of oil, in particular, zooms.
Actually jobs are not a problem what is needed is an attitude adjustment. Society needs to adjust to a future in which the standard idea of work no longer applies.
The real problem is cheap energy or more precisely, the lack thereof. With cheap energy all other economic and material worries fade into nothingness. Without it the world, particularly the developed part, is going to be in for a period of massive adjustment.
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