MARKET REVIEW: Dollar steadies on rising U.S. retail sales data
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Dollar fell briefly against major currencies on Thursday but rebounded in U.S. session as investors reckoned that the U.S. retail sales for July showed consumer spending was still growing at a healthy rate despite the number being below economists' forecasts.
The July sales rose by 0.7% m/m compared to the market expectation of a 1.1% growth. The June sales was revised to a fall of 0.5%, better than the previously reported decline of 1.1%. In addition, the weekly jobless claims came in at slightly better than expected at 333,000. However, geopolitical risk and higher crude oil prices limited the greenback's upside.
Euro and Cable fell from 1.2304 and 1.8370 to 1.2218 and 1.8195 respectively. Dlr/chf and Dlr/yen also rebounded fm 1.2508 to 1.2595 and fm 110.45 to 111.25 respectively.
Friday will see the release of Japan and E-12 GDP for Q2, U.S. PPI, University of Michigan sentiment, as well as Canadian and U.S. trade balance data.
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(Majors) - USD 300/m, (Majors/Minors/Crosses) - USD 360/m
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Major Economic Indicators for Today (Aug 13, 04 )
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Time Country Indicator
0650 France HICP M/M Jul
0650 France HICP Y/Y Jul
0900 E-12 GDP Q/Q Q2
0900 E-12 GDP Y/Y Q2
1230 U.S. PPI M/M Jul
1230 U.S. PPI ex. food & energy Jul
1230 U.S. International trade Jun
1230 Canada Trade balance Jun
1345 U.S. U. of Michigan sentiment Aug
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TODAY'S FOREX MARKET OUTLOOK
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USD/YEN - 111.72
Update Time : 01:00GMT
The greenback has rebounded strongly after finding renewed buying at 110.45 yesterday, bullishness remains for test of overhead res at 111.90 but a firm break there is needed to confirm recent upmove from 107.02 has resumed and yield marginal gain above last week's high of 112.49.
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Daily Technical Outlook
EUR/USD, USD/CHF, GBP/USD, USD/YEN
USD 80/m, Contact us for further information query@acetrader.com
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DAILY TECHNICAL OUTLOOK ON GBP/USD
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Last Update At : 2004/08/13 00:51
GBP/USD..1.8222..Despite cable's intra-day euro-led rise to 1.8370 y'day, active cross selling in stg led to a sharp fall to 1.8191 later in the day, however, as long as pivotal sup at 1.8150 holds, further choppy trading is envisaged within recent broad range.
Today, although cable is likely to remain under pressure in Asia after y'day's selloff, reckon steep fall below 1.8191 wud not be seen, bring rebound later for a retracement of the intermediate decline fm 1.8370 but 1.8300/05 (61.8% r) shud limit upside n yield retreat. Therefore, we will look to trade both sides of the market n buy stg on marginal weakness or sell if a recovery to 1.8300 is seen 1st.
Looking at the bigger , below 1.8150 wud signal decline fm 1.8774 to retrace the upmove fm 1.7480 (May '04 low) has resumed, bring re-test of 1.8085 n then twd chart sup at 1.8012. On the upside, a break abv 1.8370 wud suggest pullback fm 1.8475 has possibly resumed, abv 1.8407 wud confirm n bring a correction of aforesaid decline to 1.8510/15 (61.8% r of 1.8774-1.8085)...
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Standard Package
Daily/weekly recommendations, medium term outlook, daily
technical outlook, wave analysis
(Majors) - USD 150/m, (Majors/Minors/Crosses) - USD 240/m
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YESTERDAY'S RECOMMENDED TRADES
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GBP/YEN DAILY CROSS OUTLOOK - +202.30+
Update Time : 2004/08/12 17:17GMT
Despite stg's rebound fm 202.18, this move is move is viewed as retrace.of decline fm 204.03, reckon 203.20/25 wud hold n yield
retreat.
Sell for indicated obj, below 202.18 wud extend weakness to 201.65/70. Abv 203.30 risks 203.80/85.
Rate: +202.30+
Strategy: +Target met+
Position: Short at 202.90
Objective: 202.30
Stop-Loss:
Resistance: 203.31/204.22/205.29
Support: 202.18/201.65/201.20
DAILY OUTLOOK ON USD/CAD - +1.3300+
Update Time : 2004/08/12 15:11GMT
Usd's rally abv 1.3263 signals retrace. of recent fall fm 1.3385 has resumed n gain to 1.3300 is seen but 1.3345/50 shud hold n bring retreat.
Hold long, stop raised to break-even. Only below 1.3210 signals
temp. top is made n risk 1.3130...
Rate: +1.3300+
Strategy: +Target met+
Position: Long at 1.3230
Objective: 1.3300
Stop-Loss:
Resistance: 1.3290/1.3347/1.3370
Support: 1.3195/1.3130/1.3075
DAILY USD/ZAR OUTLOOK - 6.2800
Update Time : 2004/08/12 13:34GMT
Dlr's rebound after holding abv 6.1650 sup suggests retrace. of nr term fall fm 6.3591 remains in force n gain to 6.2800 is seen but 6.3150 shud hold.
Buy at market with stop as indicated, break wud revive bearishness n yield 6.12/6.13...
Rate: 6.2800
Strategy: +Target met+
Position: Long at 6.2200
Objective: 6.2800
Stop-Loss:
Resistance: 6.2750/6.2839/6.3165
Support: 6.1650/6.0733/6.0250
INTRA-DAY USD/YEN OUTLOOK - +111.00+
Update Time : 2004/08/12 13:32GMT
Lack of downside follow through selling n current rebound suggest a temp. low has been formed n consolidation with mild upside bias is seen for retrace. of y'day's decline twd 111.10/15 but res at 111.45/48 wud remain intact.
Turn long for st trade, stop 110.45, break wud risk marginal weakness twds 110.14...
Rate: +111.00+
Strategy: +Target met+
Position: +Long at 110.70+
Objective: 111.00
Stop-Loss:
Resistance: 111.07/111.48/111.90
Support: 110.45/110.14/109.82
INTRA-DAY GBP/USD OUTLOOK - +1.8360+
Update Time : 2004/08/12 12:31GMT
Although cable has retreated after meeting res at 1.8337, as long as 1.8300 holds, bullishness remains for y'day's rebound fm 1.8247 to extend gain to indicated obj., however, as broad outlook is consolidative, res at 1.8407 wud cap upside.
Trade fm long side, stop 1.8295, break wud risk 1.8270 but said sup shud contain weakness...
Rate: +1.8360+
Strategy: +Target met+
Position: Long at 1.8324
Objective: 1.8360
Stop-Loss:
Resistance: 1.8340/1.8407/1.8475
Support: 1.8294/1.8247/1.8201
INTRA-DAY USD/YEN OUTLOOK - +110.49+
Update Time : 2004/08/12 08:52GMT
Although dlr has recovered after finding sup at 110.49 in Asia, as long as minor res at 110.95 holds, intra-day downside bias remains for nr term decline fm 111.48 to resume n extend weakness to 110.30/35 but 110.14 is expected to remain intact.
Trade fm short side, stop abv there, break wud signal intra-day low is in place n risk 111.25/30..
Rate: +110.49+
Strategy: +Target met+
Position: Short at 110.75
Objective: 110.45
Stop-Loss:
Resistance: 110.95/111.07/111.48
Support: 110.14/109.82/109.11
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AceTrader Performance Update
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July 2004 (Pips)
Intraday Daily
USD/YEN +217 -31
EUR/USD +509 +186
USD/CHF +529 +499
GBP/USD +752 +301
YTD 2004 (Pips)
Intraday Daily
USD/YEN +338 -31
EUR/USD +2550 +1130
USD/CHF +2421 +1001
GBP/USD +2941 +548
Alex Tsui
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Trendsetter Financial Markets Limited
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Fax: (852) 2525 9443
email: alex@acetrader.com
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strategies
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