MARKET REVIEW: Dollar trades narrowly ahead of U.S. consumer
spending data
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Dollar maintained a firm undertone on Wednesday as the market digested Tuesday's U.S. interest rate hike and waited to see if upcoming economic data would support the Fed's optimism. Investors will pay attention to the release of U.S. retail sales data on Thursday in order to gauge the current growth rate of consumer spending.
Euro fell to 1.2195 and Dlr/chf rallied to 1.2647 on active cross selling against Japanese yen. However, cable rebounded to 1.8322 while Dlr/yen retreated to 110.60.
Thursday will see the release of 2nd quarter German GDP, U.S. weekly jobless claims, retail sales, import prices and business inventories data.
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Premier Package
Intraday/daily/weekly recommendations, medium term outlook, daily technical outlook, wave analysis
(Majors) - USD 300/m, (Majors/Minors/Crosses) - USD 360/m
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Major Economic Indicators for Today ( Aug 12, 04 )
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Time Country Indicator
0600 Germany GDP Q/Q Q2
0600 Germany GDP Y/Y Q2
0645 France GBP Q/Q Q2
1230 U.S. Jobless claims
1230 U.S. Retail sales M/M Jul
1230 U.S. Retail sales ex. auto Jul
1230 U.S. Import prices Jul
1400 U.S. Business inventories Jun
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TODAY'S FOREX MARKET OUTLOOK
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USD/YEN - 110.63
Update Time : 01:00GMT
The greenback has retreated after faltering below 111.48, suggesting the rebound from 109.82 has possibly ended there and further chopy consolidation within recent established board range of 109.82-112.49 with downside bias would be seen, however, said sup would remain intact today.
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Daily Technical Outlook
EUR/USD, USD/CHF, GBP/USD, USD/YEN
USD 80/m, Contact us for further information query@acetrader.com
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DAILY TECHNICAL OUTLOOK ON EUR/USD
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Last Update At : 2004/08/12 01:50
EUR/USD..1.2230..Although the single currency fell marginally to 1.2195 due to cross trading, subsequent recovery fm there suggests the selloff fm 1.2320 to retrace last week's intermediate rise fm 1.2020 has possibly ended n consolidation with upside bias wud be seen today.
Therefore, we are buying euro on minor pullback for a subseqeunt bounce to 1.2275, however, as broad outlook remains consolidative, this week's high at 1.2320 is expected to hold for today n bring further choppy sideways trading within established broad range. On the downside, below 1.2195 wud defer this bullish view n risk marginal weakness twds 1.2170 (50% r), however, as 15 min. oscillators wud display bullish convergence on such move, reckon renewed buying wud emerge at 1.2135/44 (50% r of of the entire rise fm 1.1968-1.2320 n 62% r of 1.2020-1.2320) n yield rebound.
Looking ahead, abv 1.2288/91 wud be 1st signal upmove fm 1.1968 to retrace the decline fm 1.2462 has resumed n bring further gain to 1.2368 (80.9% r), however, upside wud be ltd to 1.2400 n 1.2462 wud hold on 1st testing...
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Standard Package
Daily/weekly recommendations, medium term outlook, daily
technical outlook, wave analysis
(Majors) - USD 150/m, (Majors/Minors/Crosses) - USD 240/m
Contact us for further information query@acetrader.com
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YESTERDAY'S RECOMMENDED TRADE
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DAILY NZD/USD OUTLOOK - +0.6550+
Update Time : 2004/08/11 18:21GMT
Kiwi's rebound fm 0.6465 suggests correction fm 0.6567 has ended n further gain to 0.6550 is seen but abv needed to extend recent
upmove twds 0.6610.
Hold long, stop as indicated, break aborts n risks stronger retrace. to 0.6410/15 b4 rebound...
Rate: +0.6550+
Strategy: +Target met+
Position: Long at 0.6485
Objective: 0.6550
Stop-Loss:
Resistance: 0.6567/0.6620/0.6682
Support: 0.6465/0.6412/0.6365
EUROPEAN CLOSING GBP/USD OUTLOOK - +1.8300+
Update Time : 2004/08/11 15:22GMT
As cable has rebounded after holding abv 1.8247/49 sup, suggesting consolidation with upside bias to 1.8300/05 is seen but abv needed to confirm intra-day low is made n bring retrace. of y'day's selloff to 1.8340 but 1.8375/80 shud remain intact.
Hold long, stop as indicated. Only below 1.8247 wud risk marginal weakness to 1.8315/20 b4 up...
Rate: +1.8300+
Strategy: +Target met+
Position: Long at 1.8265
Objective: 1.8300
Stop-Loss:
Resistance: 1.8340/1.8407/1.8475
Support: 1.8247/1.8201//1.8150
INTRA-DAY EUR/YEN CROSS OUTLOOK - +136.28+
Update Time : 2004/08/11 02:37GMT
As euro has retreated after y'day's rally to 136.58, suggesting recent upmove has made a temp. top there n consolidation with downside bias is envisaged but reckon 135.80 shud contain pullback n yield rebound, however, said res wud hold in Asia.
Exit short n buy at 136.00 for rebound to 136.30 with stop at 135.75
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Rate: +136.28+
Strategy: +Target met+
Position: +Long at 136.00+
Objective: 136.30 1st
Stop-Loss:
Resistance: 136.58/137.00/137.39
Support: 135.90/135.57/135.20
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AceTrader Performance Update
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July 2004 (Pips)
Intraday Daily
USD/YEN +217 -31
EUR/USD +509 +186
USD/CHF +529 +499
GBP/USD +752 +301
YTD 2004 (Pips)
Intraday Daily
USD/YEN +338 -31
EUR/USD +2550 +1130
USD/CHF +2421 +1001
GBP/USD +2941 +548
Alex Tsui
Sales Manager - Internet Based Business
Trendsetter Financial Markets Limited
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Fax: (852) 2525 9443
email: alex@acetrader.com
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strategies
Reuters Index: TREN01 since 1989
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