Cliffbrook, I hear you loud and clear. My strategy is to stay with the dominant structure and tune being played until that tune is dead. Right now, for whatever reason, that tune has been to tease with a dip and go higher. Soon that tune will change, but the market so far has rejected the opportunity to do any real damage to structure. Now tomorrow that could all change. I doubt it based on what I'm seeing structurally.
If you're short in here, I would be a bit cautious. The top blue line in my weekly chart that looks like a wall--there's a way around that too. The market could hit it, dip down, build a new base, and go right around it.
I think there's a 60 percent chance this game goes on all the way into late September--with bigger and bigger teases along the way. Why bigger teases? Because this market really is going up a bit fast and needs to consolidate. It doesn't mean it needs to crash. So we will get a good tease in July--and then another around Labor Day. Then squeeze again--just when everyone is thinking about going short in the fall. Why? Because everyone knows--the economy is bad and the market falls in the fall. Then it won't--at least not when we expect it to.
This Bear Tease game--I warned strongly about it in March. I will continue to give warnings if I see they are warranted. This is not a nice game. It's bear hunting season, and they're getting killed. I don't like to see it, but this is a mean business if you're not on the right side of the trade.
Now on any given day, I could see a change in the market weather, and I'm completely willing to go with the new tune.
Be careful out there!
Ted
