Technical advice is usually overpriced and often over-rated; according to some. While analysis is important in many fields, its value lies in the access to quality information upon which it is based. If we are to believe the rational theory model, all information is equally available. However, experience would suggest otherwise.
Consequently, the intuitive nature of the decisional process is as important. However, even intuition is not possessed equally. It is based on education, knowledge, experience, intellect; as well as some emotional precepts like risk aversion/taking and a sense of personal well-being.
Long story short, your best guess on this little known company that you have spent some time and money on, is as good as that of some dude from Goldman Sachs (who will actually employ a some multiple regression formula that fails to grasp the incalculable).
Just check on those bright people who never saw this global economic meltdown coming. Even Robert Shiller only argued that housing was over-priced. Neither he nor other bright lights saw the rampant, behind the scenes development of the creatively destructive toxic assets now darkening the books of those paragons of financial acumen.
