Advanced Micro Devices Inc (AMD)

[wbmw]

aixman, Re: But can you actually substantiate why it is not a dud?

A "dud" is a powerful expression best reserved for chips that absolutely have no hope of surviving, let alone competing with other processors. VIA C3 might be considered a "dud", but Prescott is selling millions. If there's any doubt that it won't completely replace Northwood by the end of next quarter, then that would require a bit more substantiation than whether the chip is a "dud".

* Prescott is hot

So what? They've managed to cool it, albeit at much lower frequencies than originally planned.

* Prescott underperforms Northwood in some benchmarks

Again, no big deal, because it also *outperforms* Northwood in some benchmarks, and the 3.6GHz version already outclocks the fastest Northwood to date. I think the situation was much worse with Willamette, which sometimes underperformed Pentium III by substantial margins, at least until software was updated to run a little better on a 20-pipeline micro-architecture.

* Prescott underperforms Athlon 64

I usually take competitive threats seriously, which is why I currently have a substantial hedge right now in my investments. For AMD, I think this means more quarters of profitability for them, and a chance to build more premiums into their product line and eventually raise GMs. For Intel, this has a limited short term effect, simply due to the size of the market and AMD's inability to outmanufacture them.

In conclusion, Prescott is underwhelming, yes, but a "dud"? Not at all. AMD's last CEO made it sound like Willamette was the end of the road for Intel, and at the same time he said to expect 30% market share from AMD by the end of 2001. The reality is that Intel ramped Willamette - a die 2x as big as Pentium III, 2x as hot in terms of power dissipation, and 0.5x as fast as AMD in some applications - and brought AMD's market share down to the sub-20s, and they haven't recovered since.

That's why I don't underestimate Intel's ability to make underwhelming processors a success, especially when the AMD choir starts recommencing their hymns about "dud" processors.