Friday, May 08, 2009 12:58:22 AM
Wow, I gotta tell ya, I am really confused as to what to do. I am getting completely different opinions on what's going to happen. McClellen is saying one thing, but someone far more accurate is saying the complete opposite as a very real possibility. This is just an excerpt from the May newsletter I got tonight:
"Notice that the month of
May is the best performer of the "bad" six month string with a
total return of 0.94% on average. That just beats out the worst
performer, February, of the "good" six-month string. The market
is now faced with the bad six-month string directly before
it. It does not, of course, guarantee that the May-October
period will even show a negative return, but keep in mind that
we just saw the "good" six month string yield a negative return
of 12.4% for the Dow Jones Industrial Average. If the pattern
continues this year, it suggests the next six months could well
be worse than that.
But worse, we should not push the analogy from 1930-1931 too
far or expect it to continue too long, but we will tell you that
after the resolution of the bear market rally that saw the Dow
move up to its envelope 25.8% below the two year moving in
February 1931, it took only two months and one day for the
Dow to move to new bear market lows. If today ends up being
analogous to the February top in 1931, the analogy points to
a break of the March lows sometime around July 8-15. Rest
assured there are very few investors or analysts that would
believe such a possibility exists.
Just so you know, the SPX and DOW both today hit their 25% speed resistance lines. And then showed this chart:
"Notice that the month of
May is the best performer of the "bad" six month string with a
total return of 0.94% on average. That just beats out the worst
performer, February, of the "good" six-month string. The market
is now faced with the bad six-month string directly before
it. It does not, of course, guarantee that the May-October
period will even show a negative return, but keep in mind that
we just saw the "good" six month string yield a negative return
of 12.4% for the Dow Jones Industrial Average. If the pattern
continues this year, it suggests the next six months could well
be worse than that.
But worse, we should not push the analogy from 1930-1931 too
far or expect it to continue too long, but we will tell you that
after the resolution of the bear market rally that saw the Dow
move up to its envelope 25.8% below the two year moving in
February 1931, it took only two months and one day for the
Dow to move to new bear market lows. If today ends up being
analogous to the February top in 1931, the analogy points to
a break of the March lows sometime around July 8-15. Rest
assured there are very few investors or analysts that would
believe such a possibility exists.
Just so you know, the SPX and DOW both today hit their 25% speed resistance lines. And then showed this chart:
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