'THE' low might not be then, but 'A' low will be.
Here's the setup - in pure wave patterns, on a weekly basis, the market fall from Aug 2007 to I think it was Feb 2008 was a wave 1. Then, the fall from last summer to March was a wave 3. We are now in a wave 4 correction.
Now remember these are larger scale timeframes. The 'big picture'.
If it stands, the next leg down will be a final wave 5 which 'should' mark a new low. The theory being that all this stimulus will end up not working. And I have to tell you, if you read between the lines, things are not really changing other than the low mortgage rates bringing in new refi's in mass. I just refi'd my home to a jumbo 30 year at 4 7/8. That's insane.
So, this is most likely just a bump in things. Remember the market was trading at 14k and SpX 1500 with these investment firms trading with 40 to 1 leverage. Add in the fact that many people won't go near the market these days because they got so screwed and you have to figure what is going to be the fuel behind the move? I think just short covering and small buying to feel in out. But any large trades will not stand for too long because fundamentally there is nothing out there to really back up a new bull market .
