Thursday, May 07, 2009 6:52:33 AM
I found this comment on Yahoo Fin......it's the best post I have seen on ABK.......thanks to the smart trader that posted it!
"A nice surge so far. Up 10% on Monday, 39% yesterday, and up 8% more today. There is plenty of more room to move up, but I do expect a pullback that may last for the rest of this week. I would not be surprised to see ABK test the $1.20 level come Friday. Looking at the charts of other stocks that have made substantial runs from the $1 to $5 level you will see dips of as much as 25%. Just look at the run up ABK enjoyed last summer.
I don't think the lawsuit announced against JPM today is much of a factor. As a matter of fact in the days prior and immediately after MBIA announced lawsuits against Merrill Lynch, they saw a noticeable decrease in their stock price.
I believe the recent run up is due to next week's earnings report. Analysts are expecting a loss of .93 a share for ABK, which is double the forecasts for previous reports. The analysts are over compensating in my opinion and not only do I expect ABK to announce much lower losses than forecast, I expect the forward looking statement to be optimistic and upbeat. Looking at all the press releases for the past two years, ABK has announced numerous plans to improve their business and I believe this will be the quarter where those plans begin to pay off.
I expect a battle to stay above $1.30 tomorrow, and during the first half of trading on Friday I expect the stock to trade between $1.20 and $1.25. Come Monday I expect an open of $1.40 and a steady climb to $1.75. By the end of next week I fully expect ABK to trade between the $2.10 and $2.25 level until the next catalyst.
Folks, if you're like me and you're gambling on a dollar stock you have to weather the dips. Don't set a stop order too close to the market price for fear of giving up your gains. If short term profits of 30, 40 or 50% are more important to you, then by all means. I have kicked myself in the ass many times for selling a stock too soon and I'm not going to do it with this one.
Disclaimer: The above is just my gut talking. I am not a professional. I am a gambler who is playing with the house's money".....
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