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Sunday, August 08, 2004 10:35:44 PM
bobk, I am no guru, but this is my big picture chart right now and where I came to these numbers:
1. The low I predicted short term which was hit on the nose Friday is a TL that marks three points, the peak of the first rally off the Oct 2002 lows, the first retrace bottom when that peak/resistance was taken out in March 2003, and the second retrace point when the bull rally began. They are on the Dark Blue TL on the chart that follows and were Bright Green on the chart I posted last Thursday.
2. Directly below that is a support line that was well tested in October 2003 and was key resistance in Septemeber 2003. NOTE THIS, that same support level, approx 1106 is where the NDX gapped down after 9-11. That is a very key level, I think will be tested tomorrow and hold and we will have a short term rally off of that. That is the CYAN line on the chart that follows
3. The next solid support should the 1300 area be broken is 1200 which the bulls will defend like crazy because it's a key support level, and the last remaining TL UP, marked on chart to follow in orange TL and purple support line.
4. The next key support area is 1100 roughly (I seem to remember 1096 or 1102, would have to look) that is marked in Red and is the initial low post 9/11.
HOWVER, I may have been especially bearish yesterday, hangover from Friday, lol, and I'm rethinking that 1200 will have to hold to turn a secular bear into a secular bull.
And I think I'm no better than 50/50 on this hyposthesis, however, I think energy costs will really peak this winter and the damage will be reflected in equities in March/April. Course, could be wrong. Also, if Kerry wins, going to be reflected in the markets ST. (negative). Incidentally, I am non political and don't vote as I think we put crap up in general. The best and brightest, those who should lead, are mostly in the private sector, IMO, and want nothing to do with politics.
The big picture chart NDX, S and P correlates nicely, needless to say. Comments/arguments welcome. Once again, I am a bull trader and bullish by nature, but always like to play devil's advocate w/ myself.
Buzz
1. The low I predicted short term which was hit on the nose Friday is a TL that marks three points, the peak of the first rally off the Oct 2002 lows, the first retrace bottom when that peak/resistance was taken out in March 2003, and the second retrace point when the bull rally began. They are on the Dark Blue TL on the chart that follows and were Bright Green on the chart I posted last Thursday.
2. Directly below that is a support line that was well tested in October 2003 and was key resistance in Septemeber 2003. NOTE THIS, that same support level, approx 1106 is where the NDX gapped down after 9-11. That is a very key level, I think will be tested tomorrow and hold and we will have a short term rally off of that. That is the CYAN line on the chart that follows
3. The next solid support should the 1300 area be broken is 1200 which the bulls will defend like crazy because it's a key support level, and the last remaining TL UP, marked on chart to follow in orange TL and purple support line.
4. The next key support area is 1100 roughly (I seem to remember 1096 or 1102, would have to look) that is marked in Red and is the initial low post 9/11.
HOWVER, I may have been especially bearish yesterday, hangover from Friday, lol, and I'm rethinking that 1200 will have to hold to turn a secular bear into a secular bull.
And I think I'm no better than 50/50 on this hyposthesis, however, I think energy costs will really peak this winter and the damage will be reflected in equities in March/April. Course, could be wrong. Also, if Kerry wins, going to be reflected in the markets ST. (negative). Incidentally, I am non political and don't vote as I think we put crap up in general. The best and brightest, those who should lead, are mostly in the private sector, IMO, and want nothing to do with politics.
The big picture chart NDX, S and P correlates nicely, needless to say. Comments/arguments welcome. Once again, I am a bull trader and bullish by nature, but always like to play devil's advocate w/ myself.
Buzz
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