Dimension, it seems every indicator (save possibly cycle analysis) indicates we are in a long term, or at least intermediate, bear. Elliott wave analysis says we will easily break 2002 lows. Fundamentals and history say we either go very much lower or sideways for many years until dividends and/or p/e ratios revert to the mean, which is about 50% below (spx) where we are today. History tells us we undershoot the mean, i.e. more than 50%. Nasdaq, of course, would drop far more than spx.
The first wave (2000 to 2002) was a bear only in junk and grossly overvalued. This, the third wave, will be a bear market in every stock. Nowhere to hide in third waves.
My count for NDX, from 2000 highs, is A33313 (very bearish, far,far below 2002 lows) or C3313 (less bearish, but still break 2002 lows by a wide margin). I, and many others, expect this bear that started in 2000 to last at least 10 more years, probably 15 or 20, interspersed with many good rallys (unless we crash very hard and fast).
Near term EW counts are sometimes difficult (not a lot of use for daytrading) but longer term the counts are more clear.
all imo, of course (and shared by quite a few others, all smarter than myself).
