You really don't know until it turns, but if you look back at the March low of 666, back then everyone was calling for 600. Then looking back, you can easily see how that was a turn based on a 25 year chart fibo target from the 1982 bull market start.
Now, 943, the 2009 high seems to be the goal here. 920 is the multiple swing high which is first, but I'm with you in thinking that since everyone is looking for the same thing, it will probably be more of a turn before everyone gets it.
The real question though is, is this a bear market rally leading to new lows or is this a new bull market wave 1? I have no idea because Charles Nenner thinks this week or next we begin a new decent to new lows 'in a couple of months'. Peter Elidias of Stock Market Cycles made one hell of a case for this being a rally top point using some very interesting correllations between this rally and the 1932 rally off the lows.
But price is price and it's going higher.
One thing I do know is that there WILL be a pullback/selloff in the near future and the degree of that selloff will setup some very good buys going into year end. Selloffs are easier to time your buys in terms of averaging into a long trade than picking tops because tops can just keep going higher with no justification.
One thing I do find intersting though, and Bernie Scheaffer pointed this out of all people, that massive selloffs like we had going into March usually clear out all future resistance sellers because they most likely got blown out of their long positions in the capitulation of the selloff. Thus, you have no resistance overhead anymore. So, that makes it dangerous to pick tops after big selloffs.
This is also why most technicians are being fooled here now. What should be top after top is turning into nothing more than a one day speed bump. Now you have people most likely chasing performance not wanting to be left on the sidelines as the market keeps going up.
And that, usually, leads to a top.
Just remember, the second week of May is the target for a cycle top with a new leg down set to either retest the 666 lows to some degree. I think Art Cashin is with the majority who think that 750+/- would be a large buy trigger point. THAT is going to be the test.
