An Analysis of Zeev's Trading Habits and Flaws:
As someone who has been an observer for months now, but has never posted until today, I thought it was time for me to make some observations. First of all, I have immense repect for Zeev and believe his ability as a trader is far above average. But like all good traders, one eventually succumbs to some habitual and fundamental flaws. Zeev has made one significant one. He allowed his gut to override his game plan: the Maginot Line. When his Maginot Line was broken at 1940, he should of followed his game plan and increased cash reserves. Instead, his model was giving him readings to go forward with long positions, and this was an error of immense proportions. The second issue is Zeev's model. While the model has been very successful under the implicit assumption of the cyclical trend, it does not work very well when that trend changes. We are clearly moving from a cyclical bull to a cyclical (within the secular) bear. Zeev's model is not very adept at picking this shift, much like it was very late in the game in picking the cyclical bull that started in March 2003. He is a good trader, and has an impressive model, but one must never become a "religious" follower of any one person's work. Eventually, everyone is wrong.
