Biotech Values

[DewDiligence]

Re: DNDN valuation

For the sake of argument, what do you think the valuation of Provenge alone should be, assigning zero value to manufacturing and pipeline?

I will run some numbers on this, but first let me make some simplifying assumptions:

• FDA approval and EU approval are a fait accompli.

• Potential label expansion of Provenge into early-stage prostate cancer is part of the “pipeline,” and hence excluded from this calculation.

• Peak US sales will come 3 years from product launch, which is roughly 4 years from now.

• Cash flow / cash burn between now and the time when peak US sales are realized will be a wash on a present-value basis.

• DNDN’s current balance sheet is also a wash, i.e. cash and debt roughly offset one another.

If you have a problem with any of the above assumptions, please speak up before I get started with the actual number-crunching. T.i.a.