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Re: haysaw post# 25364

Friday, 04/24/2009 11:31:26 PM

Friday, April 24, 2009 11:31:26 PM

Post# of 52265
I know you mean well, but you are so off-base here. For one, singling out Stoll as if he represents some outlier of perspective is rather inaccurate. The anticipation of increasing demand and sales has been the mindset of the entire industry for decades, and a change in behavior associated with the biggest economic crisis of the past seventy years does not indict any single player, perhaps not even the industry. A panicky reduction in demand for prescription meds IMHO will be temporary--while the reduction in total value of sales is also partly attributable to increased generic competition.The industry can be blamed for having suckled at the teat of unimaginative imitation via me-too drugs for the past ten plus years, but not for expecting increases in demand associated with projected changes in population demographics.

The wild card of course is whether or not governmental price controls will be partially or completely implemented--but the notion that the upward curve of demand, at least for the psychiatric/neurological drug segment I know, is incorrect. If anything, it will increase as the population ages--and Alzheimer's, PD, stroke become even more salient in their drain of medical care resources.

BTW--as I reported a couple months ago, and in contrast to your comment regarding "dilution", the one criticism I have heard of Cortex management by their pharma peers is that they didnt raise money aggressively enough early-on, that they were too concerned about dilution and shareholder sentiment. Hindsight suggests they were right, but I certainly didnt recognize it at the time.

NeuroInvestment

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