Sunday, June 02, 2002 10:45:05 AM
The following excerpts from Eric J. Savitz' Plugged In column in the June 3rd issue of Barron's may be of interest. Mr. Savitz is commenting on an "annual semiconductor outlook panel" held in Palo Alto, last week:
"Niles (Dan Niles of Lehman Brothers, fg) is certain the stocks are headed further south. For many chip companies, he says, expectations for the 2003 recovery have become far too optimistic given the reduced expectations for their customers. He notes that analysts expect Dell Computer to increase 2003 revenues by about 9%, down from compounded growth of 43% in the period from 1995 to 2000. But Intel, which grew 16% a year compounded over that same span, is expected to show 15% growth in 2003, even as growth in its primary market, personal computers, is slowing. Niles suggests an explanation: Intel estimates are too high."
Later, in the same column, Mr. Savitz says:
"But if Peck (Drew Peck of S. G. Cowan, fg) is deeply bearish about most chip stocks, he's a raging bull on companies that make chips for consumer-electronics devices such as DVD players, digital cameras and flat-panel televisions. To illustrate his point, he showed slides comparing the innards of a VCR with a DVD player, noting that the DVD players features far more sophisticated circuitry, including chips designed by U.S. companies and made in Asian fabs. Peck expects that combination -- U.S. design talent and Asian manufacturing -- to dominate the industry in coming years ..."
The article names several companies, not including Transmeta. While seeing the name of one's investment target in print would be nice, it is encouraging to know we are on the right side of the development landscape.
Fred
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