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Re: bigdaddyone post# 33221

Tuesday, 04/14/2009 9:59:34 AM

Tuesday, April 14, 2009 9:59:34 AM

Post# of 86719
I couldn't surmise one way or the other. But I will offer this information that might prove useful.

First, it has become obvious that nothing is going to do anything for Drinks until the market is convinced the company has changed for the better. That could come in the form of increased sales like that from KR beer or the closing of the China deal, or M&A activity, or new products on the shelves. So, the market may ignore the acquisition of a name like Rolling Rock until it proves out through closing and accretive sales.

Second, is communication on the issue. Looking back at Labatt, we know nothing of that deal other than PK's general comments that Labatt was a qualified iconic brand that they could pursue. If in fact they did pursue it, it would answer many questions why he is and was silent on that process because of non disclosure requirements. Since Rolling Rock is yet another InBev brand, then he would have to remain quiet on Labatt, as well as Rolling Rock, until all the current negotiations between the two companies play out completely. So, in that sense, we will know when we know.

Third is viability. We know Drinks was a player for Rolling Rock in 2006 before it ultimately went to AB. It would almost be a given now that Rolling Rock is back in InBev's lap again that Drinks would be a natural candidate to either be contacted to submit a bid or for Drinks to call on them. In order to have made that bid then with not alot of cash, Drinks had to have some private equity backing to have made that all cash offer. I would expect that Drinks would be far better positioned now to follow through with an offer of magnitude now that they have Kingshott's capital in their pocket.

Fourth is positioning. Rolling Rock at their height was selling 15.4 million cases. That number has fallen dramatically more than 50% to 7.2 million cases per year. Drinks could give the brand a dramatic shot in the arm by branching out to global distribution in The Rim and Europe where Rolling Rock does not currently have a presence and where the brand would sell well on its affordability and taste factor. Plus, it makes perfect sense to marry Kid Rock to Rolling Rock on their similarities just in naming alone. That in and of itself, would reverse the downtrend and increase domestic sales almost immediately. This would have to give Drinks a "head above the crowd" persona over other would be suitors as nobody else has the global footprint that Drinks does AND the Kid Rock name.

So, on these factors alone, I personally have to believe Drinks is involved in the process and would be missing a colossal opportunity if they were not. But, as I said, the market will respond accordingly when the issue proves out one way or the other.

My due diligence and resulting opinions come from 25+ years in the world of trading and investing. Any contrarian viewpoints should be considered an exercise in futility.