Shrewd Investing

[Shrewd Dude]

MARKET REVIEW: Dollar trades in narrow ranges against the majors
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Dollar settled in narrow ranges after rallying to five-week highs against the major currencies. Newswire reports that an important Al Qaeda suspect was captured led to a knee-jerk reaction in the greenback. Earlier in the day, investors paid little attention to the slightly weaker than expected jobless claims and position adjustment ahead of the release of U.S. GDP and sentiment data on Friday. Nzd/Usd rebounded to 0.6355 after the RBNZ decided to raise the benchmark interest rate by 0.25% to 6.00%.

Euro and cable retreated to 1.2097 and 1.8210 after dipping to 1.1990 and 1.8085 respectively. Usd/chf initially rallied to 1.2860 but retreated to 1.2713 before finishing the day with a firm undertone due to active cross-selling in chf. Usd/yen rallied to 112.49 due to active cross-selling in yen.

Friday's focus will be the release of U.S. GDP for Q2,University of Michigan sentiment index and the Chicago PMI for July. The data are expected to be stronger than the previous releases and should provide support to the greenback.


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Major Economic Indicators for Today (Jul 30, 2004)
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Time Country Indicator
0600 Germany Retail Sales M/M Jun
0600 Germany Retail Sales Y/Y Jun
0900 E-12 Economic Sentiment Jul
0900 E-12 Business Climate Jul
1230 U.S. GDP Q2
1300 U.S. NAPM - NY Jul
1345 U.S. U. of Michigan Sentiment Jul
1345 U.S. Chicago PMI Jul



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TODAY'S FOREX MARKET OUTLOOK
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Update Time : 00:55GMT

USD/YEN - 112.07

As this week's strong upmove has finally been capped at 112.49 yesterday, a day of consolidation is in store with initial downside bias, however, reckon renewed buying would emerge near 111.48 and bring rebound but above 112.49 is for subsequent gain towards 113.00.



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DAILY TECHNICAL OUTLOOK ON USD/CHF
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Last Update At : 2004/07/30 01:29

USD/CHF..1.2799..Despite y'day's cross-inspired rise (active selling of chf vs euro) to 1.2860, dlr's subsequent selloff fm there strongly suggests recent upmove fm this month's low of 1.2202 has formed a temp. top.

Today, although 1.2713 has contained dlr's o/n strg retreat n consolida-tion is envisaged initially, reckon said y'day's high wud cap upside n bring a retracement of recent upmove, below 1.2713 wud signal the intermediate rise fm 1.2436 is being corrected n extend weakness to 1.2645/50 (50% r). Therefore, while we are looking to sell on recovery in anticipation of fall to 1.2720, profit shud be taken on such move as renewed buying is likely to emerge abv strg sup at 1.2591/00 n bring rebound next week..

Looking at the daily chart, as MACD has broken abv the zero line (accompanied by an impending bullish crossover of the 13-day n 55-day ema's), upside bias remains for the upmove fm 1.2202 to resume next week n abv 1.2860 wud bring a stronger retracement of the early decline fm 1.3230 for eventual gain to 1.2923/29 1st (chart res n 70.7% r)...

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YESTERDAY'S RECOMMENDED TRADE
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Update Time : 2004/07/29 13:21GMT
DAILY USD/CHF OUTLOOK - +1.2826+

Despite present resumption of recent upmove fm 1.2202 to retrace decline fm 1.3230, nr term loss of upward momentum suggests dynamic res at 1.2837 (62% r) wud limit upside n yield a strg retreat later today or tom.

Sell again on further rise to 1.2735/40 but below 1.2715 is needed to signal top seen, 1.2660/70.


Rate: +1.2826+
Strategy: +Hold short+
Position: +Short at 1.2830+
Objective: 1.2740 1st
Stop-Loss: 1.2880
Resistance: 1.2869/1.2923/1.3034
Support: 1.2715/1.2664/1.2591



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AceTrader Performance in 1H04
Intraday: USD/YEN (+67pips), EUR/USD (+2041pips), USD/CHF
(+1892pips), GBP/USD (+2189pips)
Daily: USD/YEN (+0pips), EUR/USD (+944pips), USD/CHF (+502
pips), GBP/USD (+ 247pips)
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