We hear more and more voices of high-ranked experts, who express the opinon that the actions taken recently to solve the crisis in the financial system were wrong and insufficient, and will even inhibit the economical recovery.
These people are the real experts in contrast to those who make their daily living in the stock markets, who are driven by wishful thinking.
Geithner effectively sacrifices the US economy and taxpayer to save undead banks. Experts say he should have sacrificed the banks in order to save the economy. Japan made the same mistake in the eighties, while Japan at that time had the privilege that the rest of the world did not have similar problems. This time the whole world faces this disaster at the same time.
Now, obviously you have underestimated the momentum of the bear market rally going on the last couple of weeks. I did too. Imo, the reason is that you applied data from earlier disasters 1:1. However, this crisis is much bigger than everything we have seen the last couple of decades and thus the bear market rally is also bigger but also the next drop will be bigger. The model used for the prediction is simply not fitting on the size of this crisis. Apart from that you have been amazingly accurate, and I fear you continue to be the next couple of months. For the worst crisis in a hundert years we have felt only few pain so far.
The fundamental economic data world-wide are dismail, simply historically bad, and the consequences from such data will also be historical soon, it just takes some more time until all this has fully developed. The new government will learn from its first big mistake when the financial system does not stablize the way it is assumed. And peple will realize that the new government has messed this up though it has inherited and not caused the crisis.
