What it comes down to is IF there is oil there at all. Without that heavily emphasised qualification the statement that there is a 90% chance that there are 600 million barrels is misleading.
I really think all these seemingly impressive calculations of probability are verging on voodoo until it is demonstrated that the Basin is oil prone in the first place.
Calculating the probability of winning lotto is at least based on the certainty of your number being in the barrel.
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