I may be wrong (wouldn't be the first time!), but I wonder if that is a H&S top on GLD. This would add to your argument for a leg down in GLD.
Also for consideration is GDX, which almost looks (longer term) poised for a break out around 38.70. And there may an inverse H&S, with the neck line at the break out point, but I don't think it makes a good example of one. In the short term, if GDX gaps down tomorrow, it would form an island reversal, adding to your bearish argument.
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