Short Term Trading Member Forum

[techcharter]

VIX, USD, and TNX vs TYX

The VIX is sporting a fairly large triangle from the October '08 highs. I'm looking for a break of the upper trendline to signal the start of another bear market sellof. Reaching 50 this week would do it.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$VIX&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p90917023296

The USD is going to surprise the stop limit out of many people!!! July to Nov '08 was a strong rally. Since then the dollar is tracing out a FLAT. It's in wave c at the moment, with a bottom in sight this week. In this context, I see a potential "flight to safety" in the USD as bearish for equities. ( It's not truly safe, but people think it is)

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$USD&p=D&yr=1&mn=6&dy=0&id=p07418058627


TNX vs TYX

The TNX yield made quite a drop this week on the FED's announcement to buy $300B of treasuries. The TNX (10 year yield) retraced the yield rally to the 38% level. The TNX broke below its lower Bollinger band. The bounce brought it back in, still substantially lower than the pre-FED move. I'm having difficulty counting e-waves for TNX at the moment. The best count would be a leading diagonal wave 1 followed by wave 2

The TYX retraced the yield rally to the 62% level. The TYX broke below its lower Bollinger band, but closed the day inside the bands. The bounce brought it back above the mid channel. This is more of a recovery than the TNX made. The e-Wave for the TYX yield shows a motive move from the Dec '08 lows to the Feb '09 high. Since then a FLAT has traced out. The FED announcement coincided with wave c of the flat. Yields should start to climb substantially, prohibiting many mortgage refinancings, something the housing market does not want to see.

I can't imaging the TYX yield spiking and not the TNX yield.

A spike in both of these yields would probably force the FED to stop printing money and the Treasury to abandon its rescue efforts. Someone with power is going to protest behind the scene.


http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$TNX&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p54376438595

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$Tyx&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p54376438595