Old student - I've been suffering a burr under my blanket a while now. I've tried not to say it but I think I will. We know nothing but think a lot and depending on the role we wish to play, take positions and predict up a storm. Of course then we have to defend. We know what is showing but like the iceberg 90% is under water. Investing is not always knowing it’s sometimes faith, just as uncertain as the little knowledge we have. We are in the hands of forces not seen, and certainly not controllable. The answer to your question is truly, perhaps someone knows but I doubt its any one here.