Let's try this from each end of the spectrum and then we'll meet in the middle. 25,000,000 Yahoo hits indicates more than just a passing interest in Kid Rock Beer. More than a flash in the pan. Now, for the sake of argument, let's weed out the shareholders who check it every day for news, and those media types that are constantly combing for a story. Let's leave it at the true fans who are sincerely interested in seeing the beer and drinking the beer. I'll lop off 2/3 of those and that leaves us with roughly 8 million true interest readers that "could try" or "will try" the beer. That is more than fair. Way more than fair. Trying the beer for sake of argument is a case per person over the course of a year's time. In this case, I'll be more than fair and say some will buy it by a bottle, or on draught at their local tavern. So, once again being more than fair, we'll trim it down to a six pack per person, or 2 million cases. At 2 million cases, that is $24 million in revenues.
On the other side of the spectrum, we have pre sales numbers that are approaching 500,000 cases in TWO states. Just two. The biggest two at that. If two states are already ordering a half million cases, then what's to be said of the other 48 states? Or abroad? It's easy to see that our watered down 2 million cases based on confirmed interest in the brand may not be so watered down after all. But, we'll stay with out 2 million cases for now.
Patrick guided for $2 million in sales as he said, "conservative." The price of the stock is supposedly valuing the company now on that $2 million in sales. But, not at all. The price of the stock is currently valuing Kid's Beer sales at zero. None at all. Drinks will not be able to get the product to market. That is what they've done here. A travesty in one respect; the goose that laid the golden egg in another.
$24 million at one end of the spectrum. Zero sales and the current stock price at the other. Somewhere in between is a 700% increase in revenues and a dramatric move to profitability. You have to wonder how long before everybody and his brother realizes there is no way of denying this situation. The stock is going to fly with reckless abandon.
My due diligence and resulting opinions come from 25+ years in the world of trading and investing. Anything I post therefore should be construed as representative of that hard work and effort. Any contrarian viewpoints to my analysis and resulting convict
