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Monday, 03/09/2009 1:30:19 PM

Monday, March 09, 2009 1:30:19 PM

Post# of 38891
lebed.biz

I believe more strongly with every single day that passes... Hyperinflation is now the **Most Likely Scenario** as to how the U.S. financial crisis will play out.

10 years from now... Americans will all look back at how stupid they were to believe a piece of paper backed by nothing... was actually worth something just because it had numbers on it.

I get emails everyday from people telling me that the recently passed $800 billion stimulus is nothing compared to the $10.2 trillion in lost Real Estate and Stock Market wealth in 2008... and therefore, we will see deflation in the years ahead.

Real Estate and Stock Market wealth is a fantasy. Houses and Stocks are worth something only if a small percentage of the people owning these assets want to sell. If everybody wanted to sell their Real Estate and Stocks at once... they are worth nothing.

By no means does Real Estate and Stock prices have the same effect on consumer prices as the money supply of cash sitting around... and believe me, the money supply in the U.S. is about to rise faster than it ever before has in history.

Take a look at this chart of the Federal Reserve & Treasury Total Money Supply (FTTM):

http://www.lebed.biz/fttm.jpg

The fact of the matter is this... total money allocated by the Federal Reserve and Treasury for bailouts and stimulus's during the financial crisis has now reached $10.3 trillion... most of it coming during the past couple of months since Obama has taken office.

Bernanke can try and con Americans into believing we are receiving valuable assets in return for the money we inject into banks... but all of the assets being taken on by the FED are completely worthless. Although only $2.6 trillion has been spent so far, I believe all of the $10.3 trillion in allocations will be spent and this is just the tip of the iceberg.

The Democrats were able to successfully portray Bush as having been an extreme conservative who was in favor of limited government and free market principles... which they claim created the problems we have today.

I believe, if Bush was indeed in favor of limited government and free market principles, we wouldn't have the problems we do today. Bush, despite being a Republican, expanded the government and increased spending more than any other President in history. If Bush and Greenspan simply allowed the U.S. to have a steep recession in 2000, it would've been painful for a couple of years but the economy would most likely be strong today.

The Republicans have no credibility because they supported Bush's stimulus and Paulson's bailouts... so how can they object to Obama when he is simply following the same policies only making them bigger?

Geithner just said on Friday that he has never met one economist in the world who thinks it is a good idea to cut government spending during a recession. This is the most ignorant and outrageous statement I ever heard in my life.

Bush bankrupted this country with his spending. If Obama campaigned for change... wouldn't he want to do the opposite of Bush and cut government spending immediately so that we at least have a slight bit of hope of paying back our national debt without Hyperinflation?

When Bush's $200 billion stimulus was passed last year, I predicted it would create massive inflation... and indeed prices of gas and food reached record highs by the time the checks arrived.

Obama's $800 billion stimulus will take a little bit longer to work its way through the system because instead of writing direct checks to consumers... the money is being wasted on pork projects that will take some time to be completed. Trust me, the inflation will come.

I am also getting emails from people telling me that the $10.3 trillion in Federal Reserve and Treasury allocations so far... is nothing compared to America's $14 trillion annual GDP.

What these people fail to realize is... most of the U.S.'s GDP is from consumption and not production. When Americans take out home equity loans and max out their credit cards to consume things that were made in China... it adds to the GDP even though it adds no production to our economy.

Our largest exports are now scrap metals and scrap paper from junk we don't need any more... that gets recycled in China so that they can produce more things for Americans to consume with money we borrow from China.

China's planned $585 billion stimulus is still on. There was some speculation in recent weeks that China would expand their stimulus... but so far it looks like they are sticking with the size of their previously announced plan.

China's focus on their own economy with their rightfully deserved stimulus plan (which they can afford with their U.S. Dollar reserves) shows that they are getting ready to cut out the middleman... the United States... and consume their goods on their own.

I don't believe there is going to be any demand for U.S. Treasuries before long. Unfortunately, the only way our country has been able to pay off its old debt plus interest is by issuing larger amounts of new debt. The house of cards is about to fall down.

I find it extremely unlikely that the U.S. will default on its debt... they will simply print the Dollars needed to pay it off. When you combine our $11 trillion national debt with $10.3 trillion in bailout/stimulus allocations and $55 trillion in unfunded obligations for social security, medicare, etc... that's $76.3 trillion that will have to be printed and this crisis is only getting started.

I don't think there is any way possible that Gold won't go to at least $5,000 per oz over the next few years. Don't be the last man out of the Dollar and into Gold. Get a head start now while Gold is still below $1,000 per oz.

It is unbelievable the huge gains many of our Gold stocks have made during the recent months... yet CNBC continues to talk down Gold and ignore the fact these stocks have been taking off.

For example, on November 3rd I announced DRDGOLD (DROOY) as my #1 pick for the next 4 years of Obama. Let's take a look at a chart of DROOY vs GE, GM, C, and BAC since then.

http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/charts/big.chart?symb=drooy&compidx=aaaaa%3A0&comp=ge%2C+gm%2C+c%2C+bac&ma=0&maval=9&uf=0&lf=1&lf2=0&lf3=0&type=2&size=2&state=8&sid=2801079&style=320&freq=1&startdate=11%2F3%2F2008&enddate=3%2F8%2F2009&nosettings=1&rand=1568&mocktick=1

(from JFSAG)

Quote 03-19-08

"Yes, we must, indeed, all hang together, or most assuredly we shall all hang separately." ~Benjamin Franklin to John Hancock

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