MAKING PREDICTIONS as to timing, such as to when a stock will
move the next day, or next week, as so many of you are want to do
serves no useful purpose as to that movement. But, you don't need anyone to tell you that.
However, if it provides a source of entertainment, pleasure or comfort to the would be prophet, then there is some understandable reasoning behind it, I guess.
I suggest that the time and mind energy put to it would be better served in searching out solid, fundamental, reasons for why something in the markets should happen.
Some of you echo so much of what analysts have said are indicators without applying logic. For example someone wrote yesterday that 'Transport' is the indicator. That may well have substance when it is just a normal economic set back, as in slowdown.
The availability of money, as in a sound functioning banking system is the key. Can a transport company operate without money?
Do you know one company operating without a bank behind it?
In past economic down turns, even the great depression era, many small banks failed, but never the giants. There has always been
a solid banking and financial system operating. This is the first time we are experiencing a world-wide collapse, or severe shakiness, of anything near these proportions.
Until this is seen to be back in business, the situation can only
get worse. There is always a point of no return, where if something is not corrected we will have a breakdown of society to unthinkable proportions. And that is why this will not be allowed to happen.
Serious money entering the market, which is needed to support any
sustainable, or even convincing turn around, will not do so until it sees a solid fundamental reason for so doing.
At the moment there are many small and medium 'players' who are just waiting for an opportunity to 'get out'. It takes a rare breed, rarer than people think to buy into a collapsing market
once the collapse is well established. They will jump in on the way down at times because they do not believe it will continue.
Right? Of course, I have done it myself.
That should be enough for those with open minds to have got my point. IT IS THE BANKING SYSTEM which brought on this crisis, it will be the BANKING SYSTEM that will eventually repair it.
What brought on this world wide collapse? In one word 'DERIVATIVES'. They never existed in the past, certainly to NOTHING like these proportions. Derivatives are connected to virtual reality, a feature of our age.
I suppose 'fiat' money that is all current money is money backed by nothing but promise or perception which permits it to be accepted as a medium of exchange. (Well that is one explanation)
is a form of derivative
In a virtual real world ANYTHING can happen. Anything can be created. This why now we don't bat an eye when they talk of trillions of dollars, yet few people have any concept of just what a 'Billion' is. Even though I know, and have seen examples, it is still hard to imagine. Our minds have limitations. It takes great effort to push them beyond where life has conditioned them.
The market is due for a slight correction in which a few shaky shorts will buy back (you see, too many of these clog the drain)
Shorts are not an homogenous breed, they come in all shapes and sizes. When it comes, treat it with care. Never accept what the media backed analysts give as reasons and excuses. Apply your own
logic and accept that nothing is what it seems, or presented.
One thing is absolutely certain, and supported by historical evidence: Life as we know it, needs a solid functioning banking system. It can either be a nationalized one, private, or public traded one. It can function temporarily as an in-between to preserve some stability, but not for long.
I do not believe the USA would embrace a nationalized one. So, if you believe as I do that the Banks have to be back in solid business before anything meaningful, and positive to happen in the economy - which banks are going to be in the forefront?
Unless there is some very serious revelation about BAC that we don't know at present, I see BAC being there. When it will happen, I will not attempt to predict, but I am watching for those almost imperceptible signs like an eagle.
One word here. If you see signs of businesses on the move again
and pushing upwards, and it is sustained for some time, but at the same time media (mouthpiece of the establishment) continues to present the banks as being in disarray, then you will know that is a 'blind' for reasons of benefit to them (I can think of one or two). COMMERCE, AND INDUSTRY, CANNOT FUNCTION WITHOUT A REASONABLY SOLID BANKING SYSTEM.
Have a nice weekend to all
