Thursday, March 05, 2009 1:45:45 PM
We don't know why the downgraded estimates are what they are. Maybe Analyst 1 thought with the current business environment and the price of oil being this low compared to last year that they were going to drop the estimated future share price to $x but knowing Addax is moving up the schedule for the JDZ drilling with a ROO on the horizon, they only downgraded the estimated share price to $y. We don't know what X or Y is so we can't read anything into the Addax analyst numbers.
Keep in mind, Addax is a "in production" oil company with many irons in the fire. Analyst target estimates are usually within a year so even with the moving up of drilling in the JDZ, this will not effect the Addax price target until they can increase their proven reserves (to an analyst).
UNLIKE that of ERHE which is pure speculation (no monthly production yet), where the valuation of ERHE's share price is based solely on what it can become (or be sold for) vs what it is producing now plus potential future production (Addax).
This is why ERHE has a potentially higher multiple in share price gain in the short run than a addax or sinopec in the same block.
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