Short Term Trading Member Forum

[techcharter]

DOW 10yr/monthly chart

This first thing I notice is the Bollinger band, while pointing up in parallel, the price tagged and bounced off the upper band after a considerable rally. I think the index will continue to move to the mid channel in the near term. That would be about DOW 9500. Parallel trendline channels from Oct '02 would still look good. This keeps some of the bullish wave counts active. A break below 9100 would pretty much invalidate the bullish wave count.

The next thing I noticed was the MACD. It ticked down the first time in 17 months. Upward momentum is definitely slowing. MACD can give false buy/sell signals. Coupling MACD with e-waves would be better for both.

On Balance Volume OBV is rolling over as selling pressure increases. There is a lot of overlap of volume trends, just like the DOW. There is no real increase of holdings as the DOW moved sideways the last 4 years. It's distribution, not accumulation.

The Relative Strength Index RSI is crossed into the strong area and then reversed after a few months. The index is pointing down and close to entering the weak area again.

http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/intchart/frames/frames.asp?symb=djia&time=8&freq=1