Sorry Dmaze, this is not a reply to you. I could not find a facility to create an original.
First let me say, It is not my intention to pour water on any ones exuberance from the way this share price recovered from the depths of hell on Friday.
My intention is to sound a word of caution. I will try to put things in perspective from an unbiased view gleaned from the facts as we know them.
There are two important facts. It is claimed, and it appears
that the present fortunes of this company rests on whether it will be nationalised or not.
If so, then if it is to be nationalised the shares are not worth ONE cent. The shareholders will lose all.
If it is not to be 'nationalised' (reason for quotes will be clear later) but remains as is, then, if no further hidden negatives of this company are revealed, its share price should be considerably higher, probably (my estimate) around at least
$10 in this market.
This company has been mercilessly attacked by bad media negatives for some time, giving shorts, large and small, a field day. This would have driven the shares down even further
it being a bear market
Summary conclusion. This share is either worth nothing, or at least around £10. All hanging on the thread of 'Nationalisation'.
To be, or not to be. That is the question, so sayeth Shakespeare.
We have been fed nothing but vague, enigmatic, information.
Now here is the crunch. And it is in these feeble responses when being pushed to clear the air on the 'Nationalisation' question which gives me grave doubts as to this company's future in its present form.
Nationalisation is the key word. We have had assurances that
the establishment believes in banks remaining in the private sector.
Well there is a way that all the statements made so far can appear to have spoken the truth, or at least not lied (not quite the same thing?) but, and this is the part that concerns us, it will still end up ripping of the present shareholders, and bond holders.
Simply it is 're-privatisation'. Can't go into detail, but there is a process of cleaning up all, or most of the bad parts, dumping the shareholders and bondholders, then eventually putting it back on the market restructured as a going concern.
This way they get round the 'no nationalisation' question as they hold the mass of shareholders in while the large holders
exit. I have examined closely the rhetoric and observed the double speak and it all fits. Of course, this could be coincidence. We who are in, have to decide.
Large holders of these big companies can't all dump at once so it can appear to have run ups that looks like a turn around - which it may be if no form of nationalisation (a sewer by any other name would stink as bad) occurs.
My personal feelings are that the banking system, world wide, is in such a mess, mostly from lost image, and trust, that will take a long time to repair, unless something major appears to be done to clean up the act and start again.
This process of - 're-structuring during a short government takeover, then re privatising would seem to be a logical, for them, choice.
Have a nice weekend
