I'm not sure I fully understand your logic. I feel that if the Japan economy shrank the worse since 1994 then Yen buyers would be seeking investment elsewhere, thus depreciation of the Yen ensues(cross/jpy up). Of course this can all be skewed by risk aversion in which people would liquidate cross/jpy longs. I took the trade out of speculation that the Yen will be sold...pure speculation, or better stated, a guess.
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