a e/j 'n usd/cad view......
from one of the daily mrkt subs I get...& as per usual....no real sticken of da neck out....coverin both sides of the trade...& there's really not much on the greenback/looney pr....sorry all ya Loonies ;)~
e/j
The bulls are revving up their activity for yet another showdown?
Daily (D1)
Foreboding sign(s) of sustained bullish push continues to flash on the track inspired by another round of cyclical upswing (in progress) that kicked off one and a half days ago (1.5 days of up tick that remained firm toward close of market last Friday). The pair made some headway and banged at 118.79 but lacked enough pressure to force a breakout. Until the amount of bullish Daily (D1) variations dries up, the bulls could further turn up the heat for another crack at 118.50 and 118.75/78 immediate and nearby barriers but this time going for a breach. Technically, firing on all cylinders, signature of a true breakout from 118.70s/80s is again visible and once blasted, the next wall of resistance standing taller at 119.09/13 and subsequently at 119.37/45 or 119.65/70 could brace for some barrage of bullish price action. Probable extended-bull price action is also being considered and resistances hovering at 119.85/95 are potential targets. Mind your leading indicators while this is happening because buying pressure (bullish push) may eventually and momentarily ease for some correction once it works these upper levels --- before it starts motoring up anew. You would want to swing by your H4, H1 and intra-hourly trading components (15 minutes and 5 minutes) for a close blow-by-blow fluctuation price action. On the pull back play and price fluctuation, we will touch on this in the H4 section of this advisory.
Moreover, with no interference from any negative data or unless fundamental event(s) saps the wind to the sail and puts a halt to the ongoing upsurge, the identifiable resistance areas at 120.30 to 120.50s also remain as high probable targets for a test. The upper side curvilinear envelope by the way, tag 121.70/80/90s figures as dominant resistances for the 9-Day cosine variation orthodox top (Wednesday of this week barring any fundamentals).
Long Term Weekly (W1) Outlook and Probable Trading Ranges:
Upper Side
We have in our scope 120.50/60 or thereabout as a major key resistance, but violation bring 121.65 and or 121.90 into the scene for a stopper. But penetration of 121.90s sets the stage for a test of 125.80/90 or thereabout upper territories. Major reversal is then expected to follow.
Lower Side
First bunker of support is visible at 118.05/10, but violation could gather traction and stomp at 116.30/40s. Further weakness and or breakage of 116.30s gathers more “shorts” for another ride and test of 114.35/45 next overhang with a possible tail down to 114.10/15. Catching the fall if 114.10 do not hold is 113.30s guarding the majors at 109.70/80/90 region.
Hourly (H4)
Just the same, looking through the eyes of the bulls with a lens at the hourly cyclic variation when market closed last Friday, the pair seems to have been 8th along on its hard up grind. On the average, if previous case of occurrence is taken as a rule, it is crystallized that the pair has either 2 or 4 bars more of firmness remaining. Thereby, resiliency could remain in the meantime and could take some swing at 119.09/13 or 119.30s nearby upper bounds. Yet and because of the principle of variation, there is also a stark possibility that the pair may have seen its peak last Friday or is about to, during the opening of the market in Asia and part of Europe and edge lower after that for some correction. In either case, the slide is seen to last for just about 2.5 or 3.5 bars and may cover around 160 (minimum pips) or 240 to 280 pips measuring from whatever peak it attained before the turn. Track your indicators when this comes about (edging lower) as there are emerging supports along the way that may arrest the slide and fling prices back up for some rally. (Please go to your H1 and intra hourly trading components to catch the fluctuations).
Looking through the eyes of the bears --- this time….
Daily (D1)
Underlying supports in the immediate lows of 118.16/22 (forward support guarding the 117.80/90s) should hold prices from further slippage if in case the longs don’t hold the rope tight enough. During the first few hours of trading (Asia market activity), the pair is expected to have a range of about 44 to 60 pips before the New Day Bar pops up in your daily (D1) chart window. But the breach of 117.80s pillars of support aforementioned, has the finger print of the H4 in it with its leading indicators (stochastic) having reached its tipping point. If unabated, the immediate nest down target objective, which emerges at 117.20s or thereabout, could get tested. This bearish price action may take a time period of about 1.5 to 2.25 bars with around 240 to 250 pips magnitude dip to be followed immediately by a run up of almost the same magnitude size with a slight possibility of recouping as much as 280 or 295 pips (upswing counter play).
There are pull back areas that bears close monitoring at this time as fluctuation that emerges from the short-duration trading components are busy hitting two sides of the pendulum. Indicators that are turning lower against indicators that are buoyant could clash and send prices vacillating and with some negative influx from any economic data during this period of vacillation could weaken the euro bulls and momentarily trigger a down swing. As this technical consideration prevails, the easiness as mentioned may get some added push from fundamental news and the bears could force prices to slip through the crack. With enough momentum, storming the low region of 116.50/55, 116.38/43 or 116.20s cannot be ruled out.
The heat is on….
But weighing all possibilities technically, the ripple effect of the bullish Daily cycles (the synchronization of 8-Day Sine and 9-Day Cosine waves) is spilling over onto the rest of the shorter duration components like the H4 and H1 as well as to the intra-hourly short-duration components. In light of this (bullish D1 cyclical pattern), the possibility of a major and early turn around (down trend) against the ongoing up trend, is unlikely and or minimized until the maturity and completion of its bullish cyclic pattern. But for the record and prognosis purposes and in case there is a big change in technical outlook that we may have overlooked, let me just share with you the viable support figures that remains identifiable at 116.04/08; 115.90s; and 115.40/60s.
Dollar/Loonie
The Daily chart outlook is still downhill and the skid could continue for a minimum of 2.5 days to a maximum of 4.0 days subject to update. But as it is, the pair is eyeing its first ideal support sited at 1.2230/40s for a nominal magnitude size support. Next is 1.2130s for a 415-pip drop. The next support lies in the vicinity of 1.1930s for a 610-pip slide. The major lower side support where it may nest down for a soft landing emerges at 1.1820s for a 730-pip drop.
On the other hand, chances of buoyant price action, but is not highly expected at this time unless there is a substantial change in the fundamentals, would have 1.2360s for initial barrier. Intervening resistances at 1.2430s awaits the bulls for some showdown but again if violated could catapult prices into the upper ceiling boundary of 1.2630s and this is the gate to 1.3100/1.3120 if likewise blasted.
