lentinman, I haven't missed a post here and
very much appreciate your work
another of your prior.....(around mid july of 07 ?)
There are always reasons why housing begins to decline (crash). Interest rates are potentially a big reason. On that score, housing has a long ways to go because interest rates are likely to continue to climb.
Here are all of the peaks and valleys of housing starts since 1959.
Comments continue below the table.
Mo/Yr.....Millions...months drop...%drop D
2-64.........1.82
10-66........0.843........32..........-54%
----------------------
1-69.........1.769
1-70.........1.085........12..........-39%
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1-73.........2.481
1-75.........0.904........24..........-64%
-------------------
11-78........2.094
5-80.........0.927........18..........-56%
----------------------
10-80........1.523
11-81........0.837........13..........-45%
---------------------
1-86.........1.972
1-88.........1.271........12..........-36%
---------------------
1-90.........1.551
1-91.........0.798........12..........-49%
--------------------
1-06.........2.292
4-07.........1.528........15..........-33% (SO FAR)
5-07.........1.474.........16.........-35.7% revised to 1.434...-37.4%6-07.........1.467
The average for 7 peaks and valleys prior to the present one are 15.9 months and -49%.
Based on that, you might come up with numbers similar to Beigle's - 1.100M in 5 more months. However, I don't think so. Again, this bubble is overwhelmingly greater than in the past and here is the biggie. INVENTORIES are at record highs. Ultimately, it is inventories that have to be worked off BEFORE housing starts can recover. And, those inventories don't even include the (overwhelming) record number of second and third homes that people have - but have yet to see a need to unload. Wait until the next recession and see how many millions of houses are SUDDENLY available!
posted by lentinman
AI
