As I said earlier (message no:4359) someone (may be more than one) has (have) been accumulating recently throwing in important amounts in the $0.015/share range.
I wonder why now and where these shares come from?
If they come from the company it's most likely in a not to ethical context.
If they come from the company, it could also mean that the company is not what IR/PR's say it is. I doubt that somewhat ???
If however they come from desillusionned individual investors it's less of an issue. In this context I wonder if these could not be shares being bought back by the company before it becomes a reporting company (whenever that will be ...)?
If the company is effectively as per the recent releases affirmations, that could realy be possible (as many other scenarios).
Whatever the case, I also feel good about this speculation ... slightly better than I also did one year ago ???
Most of the following (written herein one year ago) is still applicable today, assuming "an optimistic scenario". I sure would like it to now be different...
Posted by: pual
Date:7/7/2003
Post # 1466 of 4397
Personally, I would not use the word "investment" to refer to the money I have in Veltex, I prefer to say "speculation" or even "Gamble", considering the total lack of visibility we have on what this is all about, in real FACTS.
This being said, we can look at it very negatively and justify a disastrous scenario by exploiting the behavior of Matin, the lack of follow thru on the releases issued by the company and many other factors justifying negative views.
For the moment, I would like to foresee a rosier picture that would look as follows:
-Inexperienced Matin got caught making promisses he was not able to fill in expected timing
-To optimistic Matin greatly underestimated the task involved in auditing a company that had been abandonned for years and had multi-national operations
-Assuming a good base to start with (December 2002 presentation) and expecting a rapid economic turnaround in US (was thereby part of a crowd) he launched an expansion program that wasn't based on serious analysis of the markets he was looking at.
-In so doing he got involved with some people he trusted (blindly) and got screwed by many
-Having been burned by them he stopped listenning to others that could be better guides (V.Duff's claim)
He now has an unaudited company, still making relatively well but not at all as well as expected therefore having more difficult access to needed fundings.
Following thru with my "rosy scenario" here is what could happen:
-We effectively will endup having 100,000,000 shares out there
-A credible audit will come out allowing to forecast a realistic profit (12 months down the road) of a penny per share ($ 1,000,000)
-Applying a multiplier of 20, the shares would rapidly become worth 20 cents.
-A reverse split of 20 to one would make them worth $ 4.00 and allow the company to get listed on another stock market.
From there on, we would have a "speculation" become an "investment" and have to manage it as any investment.
Since I decided this post to only look at an optimistic scenario I will not follow up with an "however" statement but, based on what we think we know, this analysis is as good as any, or as bad as any, whatever you want to beleive.
Only future will tell...
Roger
