ALD JASO NFP- my fgavorite momo plays for 75% - 100% gains as Dow goes to 9000. Here is good ALD post
Lemi,
Let me try. ALD's divi has historically been made up of about $.20-$.25 of NOI per quarter and perhaps $.40 of realized capital gains that they pay out over time to smooth the dividend. That is how we got the $.65. Even though things were deteriorating last year they continued to pay the $ .65 per quarter because they had a couple hundred million of realized capital gains that they had not distributed to us as required by law. On the last conference call they told us that for 2009, unless things improved dramatically, which they have not, the quarterly payout would be more like the quarterly net operating income and suggested it would be in the range of $.15-.30 per quarter. That has lead to all the speculation on this board about how low it will drop. In their recent bank renegotiations they agreed to limit the quarterly payout to $.20 per quarter until end of 2010, unless the loans are paid off earlier, or unless they have to make a higher payment in order to maintain their status as a BDC. My suspicion is that when they announce their first quarter intentions, in a couple of weeks, the divi will be set at $.20. The one caveat that I would add is that I believe they still have some of that "realized" capital gain spillover from last year that they have to deal with, so they may set the divi above the $ .20 level for a quarter or two to get rid of that excess, but then do $.20 per quarter for the rest of the period. Speculation has been all over the place with some forecasting that the divi would be eliminated. That will not happen, at least not now (I mean, if we go into a 30's type depression all bets are off). My forecast is that once the divi announcement is made that will drive the stock up to the $5-$6 range and that is why I am long, plus every time the stock dips below $3 I buy a few thousand more and sell when it gets around $3.50, like I did yesterday on my trading shares. The volatility makes this a fun day trading stock for the time being, but when that divi announcement is made you DONT want to be short.
AI
